It’s very difficult to overstate the epic beat down Democrats just laid on the MAGA coalition in a big Foxtrot Delta Tango to Donald Trump and his neofascism. Nothing like this has happened since the post-Watergate Democratic wave in 1974.

Yesterday I predicted a 235-vote House majority and perhaps 53 Democrats in the US Senate. I correctly saw wins in Texas, Iowa, and Kansas, but never dreamed that Annie Andrews could win in South Carolina. I also expected Susan Collins to hold on in Maine. I was far too conservative.

The notion that Mississippi might still be a dead heat at 10 AM the next morning never occurred to me. 

I also didn’t see the Shannon Taylor flip in Virginia’s First District. I thought she would come close, but that Tea Party voters in the rural counties would stay home and show up to help Wittman squeak by. I didn’t see a wave big enough to flip this district coming.

I think I got most of the reasons for this right, and I correctly noted in past videos that progressives could win elections in battleground states even with a funding disadvantage (see Texas and Michigan). Elon Muskburned through something like $250M in Texas alone, and the Koch brothers, AIPAC, and financial sector donors outspent Democrats by $94M in Ohio and $32M in Michigan. Money alone does not win campaigns.

One key thing I did miss: the huge turnout increases among minority voters and voters under 30, with lots of overlap. It appears that black voters showed up for Dems in Southern states and Michigan in response to SCOTUS gutting the Voting Rights Act and subsequent gerrymandering. Hispanic voters, who formed a key component of Trump’s 2024 coalition, ran as fast as they could back to Democrats in response to the way ICE has treated their communities. And young voters – including young men! – voted for Democrats, They almost doubled their 2024 turnout where candidates gave them something to vote for (e.g., medicare for all and an end to genocide in Gaza).

These shifts helped Democrats win in Michigan, Texas and South Carolina, and made a state that normally gets called fifteen minutes after polls close, Mississippi, to remain essentially tied the next morning. 

Also, too, a look at outstanding votes suggests that Scott Colom has a decent chance to give Democrats a 55-45 Senate Majority, and I now think he’ll pull it out. If Peltola pulls it off in Alaska, Dems will have 56 votes in the Senate and still have 55 even if Fetterman switches parties.

Simply. Unbelievable. 

I’ll spend the week parsing data as it comes in, and Scott and I will have much more later this week on Two Crusty Old Combat Soldiers with a Microphone and Foggy Bottom Line Live. I’ll also put together some thoughts on what Democrats should do with these majorities (The obvious corruption investigations and impeachments, of course, but Dems should also pass progressive legislation on data centers, AI, wealth taxes, health care, and restoration of DOGE cuts). Trump will veto any legislation Dems pass, but this gets GOP reps on the record and forces Trump to own it.

Democrats also did very well down ballot, flipping most of the statewide offices in Texas and Governor’s offices in Ohio, Texas, and Iowa. If the Party had gone big in Florida, David Jolly and Angie Nixon might have also won. A referendum in Missouri that would have repealed abortion rights and ban gender transition failed. All three Constitutional Amendments won in Virginia by wide margins, with reproductive rights at 60%.

If you’re a Democrat, savor this very clear rejection of GOP fascist politics that rely on fear of out groups and collaborating with billionaires to make everyone else poor. Progressives won this thing, and we should celebrate the win.

If you’re a Republican, pay attention to this message. If you want to win, you have to reject Trump and his corruption, give up on the culture wars and immigration rage, and come up with policies that help Americans get by.

More to come this week.