Foggy Bottom Line Podcast: Election Processes

Scott served as an election registrar for more than 30 years, including a year as the General Registrar in Fairfax County. With the election coming up on November 4th, I asked Scott to share some of his expertise and describe what happens behind the scenes during the last few days before Election Day.

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Value Pack 27

I got some fundraising texts this week from congressional candidates that got me thinking.

Raising money is normal candidate stuff. The problem is that we have statewide elections and House of Delegate elections in Virginia this year, and congressional races are a year away. So, two things.

First of all, I think these national candidates – whose elections are more than a year away, should pay attention to supporting the local candidates in their districts this year and help make sure Virginia elects Democrats at the state level and in the House of delegates districts rather than focus on raising money this month. At least one of these candidates is doing that. When I spoke with Salam Bhatti a few weeks ago and mentioned this to him he took it to heart – and went straight out and created an ActBlue page that would take donations for all of the House of delegates candidates in the first Congressional District.

I think the Shannon Taylors of the world ought to do the same thing.

Many of the candidates running for House of Delegate seats whose districts touch CD1 have difficult races in red parts of the Commonwealth. These are districts that the party doesn’t think a Democrat can win, so they don’t think it makes sense to support their campaigns. 

I disagree because these guys are out there on the ground in a statewide election year. They’re knocking on doors, they’re on social media, they’re putting up signs. They’re talking to people. They’re going to meet and greets, talking to voters. They’re working to get out the vote. Voters they turn out for their campaigns will probably also support the statewide candidates on the blue side, which means they’re doing a lot of groundwork for the statewide candidates. So, if you support Abigail Spanberger, you should want to support these guys.

The Democratic Party, and the elected officials in Virginia who already hold General Assembly seats, could provide critical financial support to these efforts. Democratic Party Senators, who don’t have to stand for election until 2027, could donate to these campaigns. Candidates in House races who have no Republican opponent could give critical financial support to these fellow Democrats.

It’s difficult to overstate the epic disaster we would have in this commonwealth if Winsome Sears is governor and somehow managed to get control of the legislature. If you think it’s bad at the national level, wait until you see that at the Commonwealth level.

So this is what we need to do. Sixteen candidates for the House of Delegates in Virginia have no opponent. They they’re sitting on money, some of them with more than a million dollars, some of them with more than half a million. Nine or ten have more than $50,000. They don’t need this money for their own races.

It makes no sense at all for them not to be supporting these candidates in other races, even those they don’t believe can win. They should also be supporting these red district candidates – we’re not going to grow the majority unless we start winning elections in these districts that look like they’re too red to win.

My good friend Fergie Reid, who is a civil rights icon in Virginia, has done a lot of work trying to make sure we have a candidate on the ballot in every district. This year he succeeded, despite Democratic Party apathy.

Twenty-seven of these candidates run in these red districts that nobody thinks we can win, so they get no Party support. So his good friend Charles Gaba set up what he calls the Value Pack 27 ActBlue Page similar to Salaam’s List. Donations made on this page will be split among the 27 Democrats who are running in these hard races.

My ask is that if you know a Virginia legislator who is sitting on a campaign chest but doesn’t have an opponent, reach out to them. Ask them why they’re withholding important support Democratic Party candidates who need help in red districts. 

I’m talking about Don Scott and a lot of these Northern Virginia candidates. The Senate candidates that don’t have an election until 2027. They have two and a half years before they face reelection. They can donate to these candidates who may not win but work hard to turn out the vote in these districts. 

Go write a check yourself. We need to support these Democrats. I ran for office twice in Virginia in very red districts so I know this from personal experience that it doesn’t take a lot of money to mount a little bit of a campaign and make a difference. When I ran for the House of delegates in 2021, a statewide year, I pulled 12,000 votes in a very red district – 12,000 votes that probably went to Terry McAuliffe in his losing effort.

If we can get these guys a little bit of money for more signs, more direct mail, more postcards, more meet and greets, then we can help get out the vote not only for them, but for the state party, as well. That means Abigail Spanberger has a better chance to win. Ghazala Hashmi has a better chance to win.

Jay Jones has a better chance to win. If Jay Jones is attorney general, he’ll push back on the Trump administration by filing lawsuits when they do things that violate the Constitution. Jason Miyares won’t do that. If Abigail Spanberger is governor, she will sign bills that make Virginia a better place to live. Winsome Sears will not. 

We need to do everything we can. The Democratic Party needs to put the pedal to the metal. The national candidates running for Congress next year need to put the pedal to the metal. We all need to do everything we can to get these folks elected and protect democracy. In Virginia, we can protect it this year in the Commonwealth even if our chance to protect it nationally doesn’t come until next year.

The Past, the Future, and Critical Race Theory

It’s unlikely that Winston Churchill actually said these words in just this way, but this particular Tea Party sign correctly notes that we must understand our past if we want a prosperous future. This isn’t easy – understanding America’s past requires a critical examination of ancestors’ sins against the ideals they claimed as their core national promise: an indivisible nation of liberty and justice for all. Part of my project as an activist and candidate is to make room for a discussion of America’s past with those who would turn back time.

Last Thursday I had the pleasure of attending the Hanover Chapter of the NAACP forum on Critical Race Theory (CRT). Thanks to professors Faye Belgrave and Paul Perrin of VCU for taking the time to help our community understand this very important approach to understanding race and racism in America. 

CRT is a framework for understanding racism, individual and institutional, in America. We cannot create a just society without an examining the legal regime that protects discrimination, whether de facto or de jure. So I was also very happy to see quite a few Hanover County conservative activists in the room, and hoped they would see that CRT isn’t about blaming or shaming anyone for what happened in the past – it’s about informing a just American future.

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Circular Firing Squad?

Screen shot from Facebook video of the February 23 Virginia Republican Party State Central Committee meeting.

The inner workings and various factions that make up Virginia’s Republican Party fascinate me, and I’ve been attending Tea Party meetings and following the debate between these factions pretty much since I moved to Hanover County in 2008. The short non-academic version is that a very active and motivated base has worked to take over the Virginia GOP for more than a decade. This base very much wants to enforce a kind of ideological purity that focuses far more on cultural issues than policy.

This intra-Party insurgency initially manifested itself in the capture of local Virginia GOP units by Tea Party activists after Barack Obama won the Presidency. Ideologically, this group is to the right of what I call “Chamber of Commerce” Republicans (defined as conservatives who want small government but want it to actually work). Think of this as the “conservatives lose elections because they’re not conservative enough” crowd.

They successfully won the 7th District Congressional nomination for Dave Brat over House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in 2014 because the very conservative Cantor was not conservative enough to suit them – these activists ousted a very powerful Congressman for ideological reasons. Brat went on to win the seat and served two terms before Abigail Spanberger won the seat in 2018. She held it in 2020, but narrowly.

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An Observation on the State of the Democratic Party

Isaac Chotiner has a podcast at Slate called “I Have to Ask,” and this week he interviewed Michelle Goldberg, now a New York Times columnist.  They cover lots of topics, including Omarosa and the Russia investigation.  But this bit caught my eye:

“Whenever I’m in New York, I can work myself into this state of really bleak despair, and then I go out and travel and meet … it’s not even necessarily Democratic Party activists as much as Indivisible activists or Democratic Socialists of America chapters or these sort of grass-roots groups that have sprung up since the election and are just doing so much work. And it always makes me feel so much more hopeful about the future.

You hear the same story over and over again of these kind of middle-aged women who, they voted, but they didn’t necessarily pay super close attention to primaries, maybe they had to look up what congressional district they were in, and who woke up the day after the election and were so shattered and looked around for somewhere they could go and found either an offshoot of Pantsuit Nation or a local Indivisible meeting.

And you meet these women, and they go to meetings now four or five nights a week. They have all new friends. They are just astonishing organizers, and they’re kind of using this intense local knowledge that they have. You can’t replicate that when it comes to canvassing, somebody who just knows everyone on the block. So you see that being deployed everywhere, and that I think is why you’re seeing these numbers in some of the special elections, these swings that are even bigger than the swings you see on the generic ballot.”

I can tell you that I saw the same thing all over Virginia’s First Congressional District during the primary campaign this spring, and these folks don’t seem to be tiring.  So I’m more optimistic than some of my fellow Progressives that we’re really about to see a Blue Wave in November.

Go listen to the podcast or read the transcript.  Lots of good stuff.

It Was a Good Day, Until it Wasn’t

I spent Primary Day roaming the First District putting out signs and helping volunteers where we had them at the polls talking to voters.  Took some photos of John Suddarthvoting.  Started off at a polling place in Caroline County where I greeted a handful of voters and spent 30 minutes talking to Steven Brodie Tuckerabout the state of the Republican Party, whether Nick Freitasor Corey Stewartcan win Tim Kaine’sSenate seat this fall, and single payer health care.  Interestingly, he seemed open to the idea once I explained that John’s proposal would actually free up markets in health care by removing for-profit health insurance companies from the mix. Continue reading