Foxtrot. Delta. Tango.

It’s very difficult to overstate the epic beat down Democrats just laid on the MAGA coalition in a big Foxtrot Delta Tango to Donald Trump and his neofascism. Nothing like this has happened since the post-Watergate Democratic wave in 1974.

Yesterday I predicted a 235-vote House majority and perhaps 53 Democrats in the US Senate. I correctly saw wins in Texas, Iowa, and Kansas, but never dreamed that Annie Andrews could win in South Carolina. I also expected Susan Collins to hold on in Maine. I was far too conservative.

The notion that Mississippi might still be a dead heat at 10 AM the next morning never occurred to me. 

I also didn’t see the Shannon Taylor flip in Virginia’s First District. I thought she would come close, but that Tea Party voters in the rural counties would stay home and show up to help Wittman squeak by. I didn’t see a wave big enough to flip this district coming.

I think I got most of the reasons for this right, and I correctly noted in past videos that progressives could win elections in battleground states even with a funding disadvantage (see Texas and Michigan). Elon Muskburned through something like $250M in Texas alone, and the Koch brothers, AIPAC, and financial sector donors outspent Democrats by $94M in Ohio and $32M in Michigan. Money alone does not win campaigns.

One key thing I did miss: the huge turnout increases among minority voters and voters under 30, with lots of overlap. It appears that black voters showed up for Dems in Southern states and Michigan in response to SCOTUS gutting the Voting Rights Act and subsequent gerrymandering. Hispanic voters, who formed a key component of Trump’s 2024 coalition, ran as fast as they could back to Democrats in response to the way ICE has treated their communities. And young voters – including young men! – voted for Democrats, They almost doubled their 2024 turnout where candidates gave them something to vote for (e.g., medicare for all and an end to genocide in Gaza).

These shifts helped Democrats win in Michigan, Texas and South Carolina, and made a state that normally gets called fifteen minutes after polls close, Mississippi, to remain essentially tied the next morning. 

Also, too, a look at outstanding votes suggests that Scott Colom has a decent chance to give Democrats a 55-45 Senate Majority, and I now think he’ll pull it out. If Peltola pulls it off in Alaska, Dems will have 56 votes in the Senate and still have 55 even if Fetterman switches parties.

Simply. Unbelievable. 

I’ll spend the week parsing data as it comes in, and Scott and I will have much more later this week on Two Crusty Old Combat Soldiers with a Microphone and Foggy Bottom Line Live. I’ll also put together some thoughts on what Democrats should do with these majorities (The obvious corruption investigations and impeachments, of course, but Dems should also pass progressive legislation on data centers, AI, wealth taxes, health care, and restoration of DOGE cuts). Trump will veto any legislation Dems pass, but this gets GOP reps on the record and forces Trump to own it.

Democrats also did very well down ballot, flipping most of the statewide offices in Texas and Governor’s offices in Ohio, Texas, and Iowa. If the Party had gone big in Florida, David Jolly and Angie Nixon might have also won. A referendum in Missouri that would have repealed abortion rights and ban gender transition failed. All three Constitutional Amendments won in Virginia by wide margins, with reproductive rights at 60%.

If you’re a Democrat, savor this very clear rejection of GOP fascist politics that rely on fear of out groups and collaborating with billionaires to make everyone else poor. Progressives won this thing, and we should celebrate the win.

If you’re a Republican, pay attention to this message. If you want to win, you have to reject Trump and his corruption, give up on the culture wars and immigration rage, and come up with policies that help Americans get by.

More to come this week.

Election Day: Foggy Predictions and Other Thoughts

BLUF: This will be a blue wave that will give Democrats control of the US House of Representatives and the US Senate. The wave in the House will be at least a 20 seat change and give Democrats something like a 235-200 majority, and Democrats will control the Senate 53-47. Closer to home, Shannon Taylor will not flip VA CD01.

I can list a lot of reasons why I think this will happen.

  • Young voters who showed up for Trump and other Republicans in 2024 will defect because they did not get the fundamental change – an end to forever wars and a focus on affordability – the voted for. The  capitalist system writ large does not work for them and they figure “might as well break it.” .
  • Young voters also want an end to genocide in Gaza. Social media and the internet ensure that everyone sees video of children being killed there whether they want to or not. This will cause young (and some older) Americans to seek the fundamental change they want from candidates who will promise to stop this genocide. 
  • Culture war rhetoric about trans kids and gay marriage no longer resonate with rural Americans while rising fuel prices and tariffs destroy their farms and the foreign markets for their produce. 
  • Voters are sick of watching billionaires push artificial intelligence from private planes and yachts while AI takes their jobs and housing, fuel, and grocery prices rise rapidly. 
  • Even though wages are rising with prices, people don’t feel this because right to work and at will employment laws make white collar workers anxious about their financial futures. News reports of layoffs have an impact.
  • Health care costs are out of control and voters know whom to blame: health insurance companies and politicians who argue that if you can’t afford it you don’t deserve it. Most voters work very hard and are beginning to become pissed at Republicans who tell them to just work harder. The (correct) feeling that the system is rigged against regular workers is gaining traction. $225B in medical debt has begun to hit Republican voters and it matters.
  • Screaming about who loves and who hates America doesn’t resonate as well during hard times. Voters, especially young voters, don’t have many reasons to love a country that leaves them behind while making them feel like it’s their fault after they did all the right things.
  • Americans want criminal immigrants deported but despise the heavy-handed Gestapo style tactics ICE uses. Watching federal agents who often refuse to identify themselves and do not wear uniforms randomly round up people because they have brown skin leaves a bad taste in their mouths. It doesn’t help that they shoot or assault citizens and then tell us that we won’t have a problem if we just comply.
  • Traditional GOP voters in rural areas, especially farmers, have been hit hard by higher fuel prices (especially diesel) and by tariffs that killed foreign markets for crops like soybeans. Rural America does not have diverse economies, and when agriculture dies the small towns where they do business struggle.
  • Democrats have effectively tied affordability to Trump’s obvious corruption and higher prices to Trump tariff and war policies.

There’s a lot more. What Corey Doctorow calls “enshittification” of everything. Data centers popping up everywhere. Everyone everywhere trying to nickel and dime us wherever we turn (tip jars at fast food restaurants and service fees for everything).

Continue reading →

Democrat Haley Stevens Endorses GOP Candidate for US Senate, Mike Rogers

I’ve studied politics for most of fifty years, and actively participated as a Democrat for most of the last 25. I worked in Kentucky politics right after retiring from the Army ran for the Virginia state legislature twice since 2019. I’ve never seen anything like the Haley Stevens endorsement of Mike Rogers for US Senate in Michigan.

Losing primary candidates have a few options with respect to how they play the general election. Most throw their support to the winner and ask their supporters to do the same because this is the best way to keep their position in the Party. This matters, because the Party (both the administrative establishment and its voters) has a lot of say over who gets future nominations and support.

After contentious primaries, a candidate may and often does profess support for the winner but doesn’t do a lot of work to get their supporters to show up and help the general election candidate win. They don’t appear at campaign events or help them raise money (for example by sharing donor lists or making calls on the winner’s behalf).

After Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic primary for US Senate in Michigan, it appeared that Stevens would follow the second path. She conceded and congratulated El Sayed, but didn’t seem to take an active role in helping him win. This sort of makes sense after a fairly bitter primary during which El Sayed criticized Stevens strongly for her position on aid to Israel and her willingness to accept corporate political action committee (PAC) money.

Now she has decided to endorse Mike Rogers, the GOP nominee, two days before Election Day.

In Virginia, this amounts to formal resignation from Democratic Party committees, and I can’t imagine that significant numbers of Michigan Democrats would welcome someone who endorsed a Republican who consistently votes against protecting reproductive health care rights for women and supports fetal personhood.

In an interview with Anderson Cooper, Stevens cited “growing anger” from the El Sayed campaign as her reason for her decision, but this makes little sense given that she’d said the day before that she looked forward to appearing with him at a church service and later campaign event on November 1, the day she broke from the party. Instead, she attended a service at a black church in Detroit instead.

It looks to me like her decision has much to do with her position on Israel and influence from her fiancé, Jason Turkish.

Jason Turkish, the fiancé of former Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Haley Stevens, accused the party’s Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed of escalating rhetoric that makes Jewish people unsafe, deepening an intraparty feud days before the midterms.

The immediate fight centers partly on a digital advertisement produced by Rebellion PAC, an outside group supporting El-Sayed that describes itself as a movement that rejects “the corporate-driven status quo” and stands “against the establishment.”

The advertisement shows a couple grocery shopping and talking about putting back a carton of eggs because “we have to set that $7 aside for killing Palestinians,” before criticizing U.S. military assistance to Israel in its war in Gaza. Stevens, a U.S. Representative who lost to El-Sayed in the August primary, characterized the advertisement as antisemitic and called on him to condemn it.

I am not a fan of this ad because I think it muddles the message by failing to clearly connect the high cost of groceries to taxpayer funds sent to Israel. But it points out a key issue: that the US supports genocide in Gaza with taxpayer funds, and I’m not surprised that the Zionist crowd tries to frame this as anti-semitism rather than anti-genocide.

Turkish has pushed the “El Sayed is a terrorist with ties to the Muslim Brotherhood” narrative and endorsed Rogers on October 28. Further, Stevens is apparently converting to Judaism as their wedding approaches. And apparently, some of Stevens’ close circle have become concerned about her relationship with Turkish. It’s important to be careful about characterizing others’ relationships, but former Michigan governor Jim Blanchard, in an interview with Gongwer News Service (paywall), described Turkish pressuring Stevens at dinner to support Rogers, saying: “He was working her over.”

Much of El Sayed’s criticism of Stevens focused on her acceptance of millions of dollars in campaign funding from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), which is Israel’s key lobbying organization in the US. El Sayed has pointed out many times that he believe the US should be spending taxpayer dollars on feeding American children, not bombing Palestinian children. He did not condemn the Rebellion PAC ad.

All of this makes me wonder if AIPAC leaders believe El Sayed is poised to win and wanted a hail mary endorsement from Stevens to see if they could get Rogers over the finish line in a very close election.

It also makes me wonder if AIPAC and the GOP promised her something in return, and what that might be.

Will the Gerrymanders Work?

Texas and Florida both redrew Congressional districts this year in an effort to protect the GOP majority in Congress. To do this, they used precinct voter data to create more districts with Republican majorities (at least according to the most recent election results).

It’s worth taking a look at whether this might backfire for a couple of reasons.

Success rests on the assumption that voting patterns won’t change much. That is, precincts that voted 52% for Trump in 2024 will vote close to that percentage for Congress in 2026. This is very unlikely. Changes in the economy caused by immigration enforcement, rising fuel prices caused by the Iran war, and a general perception that things have not improved since Trump won a second term in 2024 well almost certainly cause many people to change their votes, and few of those will go from blue to red. The best example of this in Texas is the apparent return to the Democratic Party by Hispanics.

This matters because to draw a new map with fewer Democratic Party seats means moving blue precincts into red districts and red districts to blue. This means making what used to be easy wins a little closer by moving those votes to make new majority districts.

But if voting patterns change a lot, some of the new districts are now vulnerable, since it went from a 60% district to a 55% district. In a way, Virginia’s First District is an example. When the Commonwealth drew new districts after the 2020 Census, the new CD 01 lost red precincts in Hanover and Stafford Counties while picking up bluer precincts in Henrico and Chesterfield. Wittman historically won the seat with a 56% plus vote total, but these changes moved the District about 2% to the left. With a big enough blue wave, this could mean a Democrat can win and Shannon Taylor might pull it off.

For a quick look at whether the Texas and Florida redistricting could backfire, check out this New Republic article on Nine Gerrymandered Districts to watch on Tuesday.

When Republicans set out to redistrict in the middle of the decade, they thought they were all but ensuring more seats in the House. But, one week before the midterm elections, many of Republicans’ tailor-made districts are looking vulnerable. Here are nine districts to watch on election night to gauge the success of gerrymandering in Florida and Texas:

FL-9
In this Central Florida district, Democratic Representative Darren Sotois running against Navy reservist Dan Green. Polling shows an even race, and the Cook Political Report rates the race as “likely D.”

FL-14
Trump won this Tampa Bay-area district by 11 points in 2024, but the race is now rated as a “toss-up” by the Cook Political Report. Democratic Representative Kathy Castor, who is leading in polls, is hoping to defend her seat from Republican Mike Beltran.

FL-25
Democratic Representative Jared Moskowitz is facing Republican Scott Singer in this South Florida district. Polls give mixed messages, but the Cook Political Report moved the race from “toss-up” to “lean D” in mid-October.

FL-22
Democrat Pia Dandiya is up against Republican Casey Askar. Limited polling shows a tight race, with a small advantage for Dandiya. The race is considered a “toss-up.”

TX-32
A lack of polling makes this race hard to judge, but a Harvard-ElectIt forecast gives Democrat Dan Barrios only a 20 percent chance of beating Republican Jace Yarbrough.

TX-9
The Cook Political Report considers this race “likely R” after a leftward shift from “solid R” in late September. Polls show Republican Alex Mealer ahead of Democrat Leticia Gutierrez.

TX-35
Another toss-up race, and this one could be anyone’s game. Polls show Democrat Johnny Garcia neck-and-neck with his GOP opponent, Carlos De La Cruz.

TX-28
Democratic Representative Henry Cuellar has held this seat for 11 terms, and recent polls suggest he’ll win another against Republican Tano Tijerina. Last week, the Cook Political Report shifted the race from “lean D” to “likely D.”

TX-34
Democratic Representative Vicente Gonzales is facing former federal prosecutor Eric Flores in this race, which recently moved left from “toss-up” to “lean D.” Polls suggest Gonzalez is in the lead.

Quick caveat on polls: Republicans have tended to over perform polls in recent years because respondents hide the fact that they plan to vote red or because pollsters failed to properly parse the voting population (that is, they included too few Republicans in their samples).

I’ve read that this year pollsters have tried to account for this. We’ll see.

Midterm Strategy: Ditch the Corporate Consultants for a GOP Performance Review

We’re 30 days out. Democrats look like they’re looking at a blue wave that could shift control of Congress from Republican to Democrat, maybe even the Senate. I want to talk about strategy a little bit because I’m seeing a lot of ads on TV that boil down to, “we gotta stop insider stock trading.” And you’re seeing that from both sides…even the guys that are doing it are bragging about voting for legislation that would stop it.

But Democrats are giving us the same old ads about how mom and dad taught me to work hard and I’ll work hard for you. I was a good prosecutor or state legislator or governor or businessman.

This is the same old corporate consultant bullshit that Democrats have been using to lose since 2016, and it’s time to change it up a little bit. Trump’s been president twice. The GOP has controlled all three branches of government for two years. And they still blame Biden for high gasoline prices.

It’s not Biden’s fault. They’ve had a chance to fix it. They haven’t fixed it.

So it’s time to do two things as a strategy for the midterms for Democrats in these last thirty days.

First, make this election a performance review. The GOP asked for control of Congress and the Senate and the presidency two years ago, and Americans gave it to them. They promised to make life more affordable and keep us out of war.

They did neither, and this begs the old Reagan question: Is your life better now than it was when we gave it to them?

The American people gave them control. We gave them power. What’d they use it for? Tax cuts for billionaires. They didn’t use it to bring your grocery prices down. They didn’t use it to bring your gasoline prices down. They didn’t use it to bring your housing prices down. And in fact, they got us into a war they promised not to get us into that raised all those prices.

Make Republicans talk about their performance just like you would at a job. If you’re a manager at a job, someone’s not performing, you talk to them and you fire them if they don’t straighten up and fly right.

The second thing we need to do is point out that the hundreds of millions of dollars corporations and billionaires and special interests are spending to try to win these seats demonstrates that they like the status quo. They want the status quo.

Seven dollar diesel is good for them because they’re selling diesel. It’s not good for you because you have to buy it to fill your truck up.

The same old corporate consultant stuff doesn’t work. These TV ads don’t change anybody’s minds. They just don’t. They may be good for pointing out to people who don’t pay much attention that there is an election, but they’re not changing anyone’s minds. No one is voting for Shannon Taylor because she said “Mom and dad taught me that hard work would bring success, but that doesn’t happen if we don’t stop the corruption” in a TV ad.

She’s right about that, but it’s not changing anyone’s mind. Instead, Shannon Taylor and other democrats need to be online saying it again and again: they promised to fix it and they just broke it even more.

Hammer home the fact that we gave the Republicans control of all three branches of government two years ago, and they’ve done nothing but create chaos and make things more expensive for everyone. It’s time to hold their feet to the fire because they didn’t do the job we hired them to do.

Point out that the corporations like the status quo just fine because they have power, they have no regulation, they have their tax cuts, and if they keep the same people in power, they’ll just get less regulation and more tax cuts.

And your housing will go up, your fuel costs will go up, your grocery bill will go up. Your interest rates on your credit card will go up because that’s all good for them. It’s all good for the corporations that are dropping millions in these elections blaming immigrants and trans people for the problems they caused.

You can’t blame Joe Biden for $7 diesel. The trans person is not causing $7 diesel fuel. Women who want reproductive health care are not causing $7 diesel fuel.

Republicans have had two years to fix it and they’ve only made it worse.  It’s time to hold their feet to the fire.

Progressives Show Strength in Democratic Primaries

It looks like Progressive candidates, all three with Mayor Mamdani’s endorsement, swept Democratic Party primaries in New York on Tuesday against candidates with Party support. (Paywall).

“Some of the night’s most potent victories for Mamdani’s branch of the party saw DSA-backed political newcomers Claire Valdez and Darializa Avila Chevalier defeating establishment-endorsed candidates, signaling a potent fusion of Mamdani’s grassroots popularity with the DSA’s organizing machine. Avila Chevalier attended a pro-Palestinian rally in 2023 in New York City the day after the Oct. 7 attacks in Israel that was criticized for including speakers who appeared to justify the violence.”

“Elsewhere, former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, also backed by Mamdani, soundly beat incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman in a heated election that also centered on U.S. policy toward Israel and the war in Gaza. Lander supports blocking military aid to Israel.”

This is an extraordinary result, and it’s not confined to New York:

“Progressives have romped through Democrats’ spring primaries, notching a series of wins across both safe and competitive districts and upending House and Senate Democrats’ battleplans. Left flank candidates Randy Villegas and Matt Dunlap trounced the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s preferred picks in a pair of battlegrounds in California and Maine.”

Two of the winners are aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America, and Brad Lander defeated an incumbent Congressman, Dan Goldman, who held the seat since 2022 and was on the impeachment prosecution team. Lander defeated him by 2-1 with support for Israel the main issue.

Continue reading →

The Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act (House Resolution 22)

On April 10, 2025, the House of Representatives passed H. R. 22, also known as the SAVE Act. Under current election law, people registering to vote must attest/affirm that they are US citizens, under penalty of perjury, as part of the registration process. This legislation changes that law to require that people provide documentary evidence of citizenship instead, and defines what documentary proof is sufficient.

MAGA voters believe this is necessary because they are convinced that millions of non-citizens, including undocumented immigrants, swing elections against them by voting illegally. They have no evidence for this, and in fact the data shows that the type of voter fraud this legislation would stop is very rare and has never actually changed the results of an election.

Republicans in Congress passed it because their core constituency supports it, whether or not it is necessary. Many also support it because it would create a new obstacle to voting, making exercise of the franchise more difficult, and they think this will affect liberal voter turnout more than it will conservative voter turnout.

This essay outlines the very simple provisions of this bill and their potential impacts, including the new obstacles to voting it creates, and the increased costs of managing elections. Scott and I discussed election security in more detail during the last three episodes of Two Crusty Old Combat Soldiers with a Microphone.

Section 1 simply titles H. R. 22 as the “Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act” or “SAVE Act.”

Section 2 defines the various forms of documentation sufficient to demonstrate citizenship for the purposes of registering to vote.

  1. A form of identification consistent with the REAL ID Act of 2005 (e.g., a driver’s license that shows citizenship because proof of citizenship was required for issuance).
  2. A valid US Passport.
  3. An official US military identification card together with a military record that shows a place of birth in the US.
  4. A valid government-issued ID card (Federal, State, or Tribal) showing that the applicant’s place of birth was in the US.
  5. A valid government issued photo identification card presented with one or more of the following:A certified birth certificate issued by a State, local government of a State, or Tribal government where the applicant was born that was filed with the office keeping vital records in the State, includes the full name, date, and place of birth of the applicant, lists the names of both parents, has the signature of an official authorized to sign birth certificates on behalf of the issuing government, shows the date the certificate was filed with the vital records office, and shows the seal of the issuing State or other government agency.
  6. An extract from a US hospital record of birth created at the time of birth with shows a place of birth in the US.A final adoption decree showing the applicant’s name and a place of birth in the US.A Consular Report of Birth Abroad or a certification of the applicant’s Report of Birth Abroad issued by the Secretary of State.A Naturalization Certificate or Certificate of Citizenship issued by the Secretary of Homeland Security or other document issued by the Federal government pursuant to the Immigration and Naturalization Act.
  7. An American Indian Card issued by the Department of Homeland Security with the classification “KIC.”

Note that a birth certificate alone is not sufficient without a valid government-issued ID card. This is the source of concern that people who took their spouses name upon marriage might have an issue with voter registration because the birth certificate will not match the government ID card. Since conservative women are both more likely to marry young and more likely to take the husband’s name, this could actually affect Republican voters more than it affects liberals.

More generally, despite conservative talking points around “you have to have an ID to buy beer,” government IDs are not so ubiquitous as they think. And while widely available, they also carry a cost in money and time, and though this is not a high cost it does place a barrier between voters and the voting booth.

Birth certificates are another matter. Many people (the homeless, many poor people, more likely in rural areas) do not have a copy of their certificate in a file drawer somewhere. Getting a copy may not be a simple matter for some people, especially older folks who were not born in a hospital and whose parents simple never did the paperwork – not an uncommon oversight in rural America before the 1960s. Note that not everyone has easy internet access or even a telephone, again more likely in rural areas. The Act does require acceptance of alternatives, but this is a real issue and it will make registration so difficult that many will simply pass. I actually think this is another provision that could backfire, since affluent people with college degrees are more likely to have access to these documents than poor people, including poor rural whites.

Section 3 requires applicants for voter registration to present documentary proof of US citizenship under all methods of voter registration.

  1. Voter registration with driver’s license application:
    • Amends the voter application form to note the requirement to demonstrate citizenship.
    • Adds language authorizing use of information provided on the form in a criminal or immigration proceeding.
  2. Voter registration by mail:
    • Requires election officials to make sure residents are aware of the citizenship documentation requirement.
    • Requires first-time voters who registered by mail (and therefore have never shown proof of citizenship) to either:
      • Vote in person the first time voting and show documents at that time, or
      • Appear at an election office before the deadline to register and show proof of citizenship.
      • Requires that voters in districts that allow same-day registration show documentary proof of citizenship at the polling place when they register and vote.
      • Requires election officials who receive a completed mail voter registration to notify the mail registrant of the requirement to produce proof of citizenship when voting so applicants can meet the requirement.
      • Requires reasonable accommodation for persons with disabilities. 
      • Requires election agencies to accept proof of citizenship.
      • Requires election agencies to ask if the applicant is a citizen of the US and prohibits registration if the applicant does not provide proof of citizenship.

The language authorizing use of information provided on a voter registration form removes the restriction on using this information for anything other than the registration itself. This would of course allow use for prosecuting a voter fraud case, and it makes sense.

The requirement for voters who registered by mail to bring documentation of citizenship to the polls when they vote the first time would cause issues for those who simply forget to bring it along, but it makes sense as part of this process and becomes less problematic after citizens become accustomed to the new process.

The rest of this section simply mandates administrative procedures such as taking steps to make sure voters know the requirements. This also make sense, but it’s important to note that these rules also increase the cost of conducting elections, notwithstanding the exemption from paperwork requirements. State and local election offices will need more staff and more funding to make sure they can implement these new procedures fairly.

Section 3 requires the Election Assistance Commission to transmit guidelines to State election officials within 10 days of enactment.

Section 4 exempts this legislation from the Paperwork Reduction Act.

Section 5 requires the Secretary of Homeland Security to notify State election officials of naturalization. DHS must notify election officials when individuals become citizens.

Section 6 permits provisional ballots and allows the counting of them if proof of citizenship is shown.

Section 7 prohibits using this Act to affect the exemption of a State from any requirement under Federal law other than the National Voter Registration Act of 1993.

Section 8 places the effective date as the date of enactment of the statute.

Sections 3-8 also simply set administrative requirements, such as effective date.

It’s important to note that this Federal legislation would be implemented by the States, which creates a situation where we could have 50 different sets of rules. The SAVE Act, for example, says nothing about people who have already registered to vote without demonstrating citizenship. Most States will probably grandfather them in, but if non-citizen voting is a problem – if the claim that Democrats have registered legions of non-citizens who help them win elections – this law won’t immediately solve the problem. Other States will require new registrations, which will drastically reduce the voter pool and annoy millions of American citizens who registered legally – and place an unnecessary barrier between them and the voting booth.

One missing provision I’m surprised conservatives left out is a requirement for Homeland Security to notify election officials when someone is stripped of citizenship, or of immigrants who entered legally on tourists or work visas who are not citizens. Many of these folks will have social security numbers and if we really think non-citizen voting is a problem I would think creating such a database would be a priority.

Which as it happens raises the key question. If the US government really wants to make sure only people eligible to vote actually cast a vote (only citizens whose right to vote has not been taken away), simply issue every person born in the US a national identity card at birth. Citizens would update this identification at specified ages (maybe 12, 15, 18) and at certain lifetime milestones (e.g., earning a credential for things like driving a car, flying a plane, or carrying a concealed weapon).

One of these updates would be automatic voter registration upon turning 18 – that is, anyone with a valid US Citizen ID card who is over 18 can vote. If someone changes residence, they simply register the change of address at the Post Office, either by appearing personally or making the change online, and carry proof of this change until time to get a new card.

This would amount to a universal birth certificate (passport?) that voters could show at the polling place to verify both citizenship and place of residence and use for just about any purpose that requires showing an ID card, including alcohol purchases. Real ID comes close since it requires proof of citizenship, but the difference here is that the US Citizen ID Card is issued at birth, so every child has one.

Conservatives have traditionally resisted this because they worry about the US government keeping closer track of Americans than they find comfortable. I understand this discomfort, but in a world where we willingly give up personal data so we can participate in Facebook chats, and carry a cellphone that touches broadcast towers in a way the Government can access, paranoia about “the government wants to track us” ship has sailed.

If we really believe that non-citizen voting is a problem, this is the best solution. Forcing people to demonstrate citizenship as part of voter registration is both the least efficient and most problematic way of fixing this. We can streamline the entire process – no more voter registration rules if everyone is more or less registered at birth – and make sure only US citizens can vote while also helping make casting those votes easier. If securing the vote is the goal, this is the way.

Two Old Combat Soldiers with a Microphone: Are US Elections Secure?

Trump and his team complained so loudly about a stolen 2020 election, hundreds of his followers stormed the Capitol to stop the Electoral Vote count, causing a riot that led to deaths on both sides and demonstrated that MAGA supporters quite happily refuse to comply with law enforcement instructions. They demonstrated a willingness to use violence against law enforcement officers if necessary to protect their understanding of their rights.

The Harris campaign conceded peacefully, and no one on the left has violently protested the election result that made Trump President again, but that doesn’t mean some on the left don’t question the result. Many liberals might rather believe Trump stole the election than believe that so many Americans wanted him back.

In this episode, Scott and I briefly discuss some of the claims made by both sides, and then discuss why the possibility changing the result of a US election by interfering with voting machines or mailed ballots is close enough to zero that it might as well be zero. He shares his decades of experience and training to let viewers know more about how election systems work, why they’re not vulnerable to the hacking (a word we both hate in this context), and why we can trust the results, even when we lose.

This doesn’t mean a faction can’t influence the results on other ways. Next week, we’ll dig into what that might look like, including an analysis of the SAVE Act.

Watch this and other episodes of Two Old Combat Soldiers with a Microphone on our YouTube channel. Don’t forget to subscribe!

Foggy Bottom Line Bonus Episode: Politics and Economic Development in SW Virginia, Featuring Mike McGirr

Mike McGirr is a community activist living in Bristol, Virginia. He grew up on a regenerative farm in Massachusetts where he learned the fundamentals of farming and shaped his lifelong commitment to localized, equitable food systems. Mike works to dismantle barriers that have long disadvantaged farmers of color, small scale producers and under-resourced communities. He also has a degree in graphic design and has handled marketing campaigns for Fortune 100 companies. This year Mike served as the volunteer campaign manager for Cindy Green, who ran for the House of Delegates in Virginia’s 44th District, a deep red district in Southwest Virginia centered on Bristol and Abingdon, near where the Tennesse, Virginia, and North Carolina borders meet. Now he’s running to be the Chair of the Democratic Party of Virginia’s Rural Caucus. Mike joins Scott and me for a discussion of politics in rural areas, economic development in Southwest Virginia, and his ideas for organizing the Rural Caucus and local County committees to grow the Democratic Party in rural spaces and more effectively support candidates.

You can find out more about Mike and his work on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/people/MichaelRay4VA/61583415347341/ and at www.MikeMcGirr4VA.com.

The FBL Theme music is Partners In Crime by Alexander Nakarada, downloaded at https://creatorchords.com. Music promoted by https://www.chosic.com/free-music/all/free-music/ Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0), used by a Creative Commons license: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Foggy Bottom Line Podcast: Election Processes

Scott served as an election registrar for more than 30 years, including a year as the General Registrar in Fairfax County. With the election coming up on November 4th, I asked Scott to share some of his expertise and describe what happens behind the scenes during the last few days before Election Day.

You can find this and other video content on our YouTube channel @FoggyBottomLineMedia and on Spotify as well.

If you can please support the show by dropping a few coins in the tip jar on Venmo: @FoggyBottomLine.

Thanks!