Texas and Florida both redrew Congressional districts this year in an effort to protect the GOP majority in Congress. To do this, they used precinct voter data to create more districts with Republican majorities (at least according to the most recent election results).
It’s worth taking a look at whether this might backfire for a couple of reasons.
Success rests on the assumption that voting patterns won’t change much. That is, precincts that voted 52% for Trump in 2024 will vote close to that percentage for Congress in 2026. This is very unlikely. Changes in the economy caused by immigration enforcement, rising fuel prices caused by the Iran war, and a general perception that things have not improved since Trump won a second term in 2024 well almost certainly cause many people to change their votes, and few of those will go from blue to red. The best example of this in Texas is the apparent return to the Democratic Party by Hispanics.
This matters because to draw a new map with fewer Democratic Party seats means moving blue precincts into red districts and red districts to blue. This means making what used to be easy wins a little closer by moving those votes to make new majority districts.
But if voting patterns change a lot, some of the new districts are now vulnerable, since it went from a 60% district to a 55% district. In a way, Virginia’s First District is an example. When the Commonwealth drew new districts after the 2020 Census, the new CD 01 lost red precincts in Hanover and Stafford Counties while picking up bluer precincts in Henrico and Chesterfield. Wittman historically won the seat with a 56% plus vote total, but these changes moved the District about 2% to the left. With a big enough blue wave, this could mean a Democrat can win and Shannon Taylor might pull it off.
For a quick look at whether the Texas and Florida redistricting could backfire, check out this New Republic article on Nine Gerrymandered Districts to watch on Tuesday.
When Republicans set out to redistrict in the middle of the decade, they thought they were all but ensuring more seats in the House. But, one week before the midterm elections, many of Republicans’ tailor-made districts are looking vulnerable. Here are nine districts to watch on election night to gauge the success of gerrymandering in Florida and Texas:
FL-9
In this Central Florida district, Democratic Representative Darren Sotois running against Navy reservist Dan Green. Polling shows an even race, and the Cook Political Report rates the race as “likely D.”FL-14
Trump won this Tampa Bay-area district by 11 points in 2024, but the race is now rated as a “toss-up” by the Cook Political Report. Democratic Representative Kathy Castor, who is leading in polls, is hoping to defend her seat from Republican Mike Beltran.FL-25
Democratic Representative Jared Moskowitz is facing Republican Scott Singer in this South Florida district. Polls give mixed messages, but the Cook Political Report moved the race from “toss-up” to “lean D” in mid-October.FL-22
Democrat Pia Dandiya is up against Republican Casey Askar. Limited polling shows a tight race, with a small advantage for Dandiya. The race is considered a “toss-up.”TX-32
A lack of polling makes this race hard to judge, but a Harvard-ElectIt forecast gives Democrat Dan Barrios only a 20 percent chance of beating Republican Jace Yarbrough.TX-9
The Cook Political Report considers this race “likely R” after a leftward shift from “solid R” in late September. Polls show Republican Alex Mealer ahead of Democrat Leticia Gutierrez.TX-35
Another toss-up race, and this one could be anyone’s game. Polls show Democrat Johnny Garcia neck-and-neck with his GOP opponent, Carlos De La Cruz.TX-28
Democratic Representative Henry Cuellar has held this seat for 11 terms, and recent polls suggest he’ll win another against Republican Tano Tijerina. Last week, the Cook Political Report shifted the race from “lean D” to “likely D.”TX-34
Democratic Representative Vicente Gonzales is facing former federal prosecutor Eric Flores in this race, which recently moved left from “toss-up” to “lean D.” Polls suggest Gonzalez is in the lead.
Quick caveat on polls: Republicans have tended to over perform polls in recent years because respondents hide the fact that they plan to vote red or because pollsters failed to properly parse the voting population (that is, they included too few Republicans in their samples).
I’ve read that this year pollsters have tried to account for this. We’ll see.