Foxtrot. Delta. Tango.

It’s very difficult to overstate the epic beat down Democrats just laid on the MAGA coalition in a big Foxtrot Delta Tango to Donald Trump and his neofascism. Nothing like this has happened since the post-Watergate Democratic wave in 1974.

Yesterday I predicted a 235-vote House majority and perhaps 53 Democrats in the US Senate. I correctly saw wins in Texas, Iowa, and Kansas, but never dreamed that Annie Andrews could win in South Carolina. I also expected Susan Collins to hold on in Maine. I was far too conservative.

The notion that Mississippi might still be a dead heat at 10 AM the next morning never occurred to me. 

I also didn’t see the Shannon Taylor flip in Virginia’s First District. I thought she would come close, but that Tea Party voters in the rural counties would stay home and show up to help Wittman squeak by. I didn’t see a wave big enough to flip this district coming.

I think I got most of the reasons for this right, and I correctly noted in past videos that progressives could win elections in battleground states even with a funding disadvantage (see Texas and Michigan). Elon Muskburned through something like $250M in Texas alone, and the Koch brothers, AIPAC, and financial sector donors outspent Democrats by $94M in Ohio and $32M in Michigan. Money alone does not win campaigns.

One key thing I did miss: the huge turnout increases among minority voters and voters under 30, with lots of overlap. It appears that black voters showed up for Dems in Southern states and Michigan in response to SCOTUS gutting the Voting Rights Act and subsequent gerrymandering. Hispanic voters, who formed a key component of Trump’s 2024 coalition, ran as fast as they could back to Democrats in response to the way ICE has treated their communities. And young voters – including young men! – voted for Democrats, They almost doubled their 2024 turnout where candidates gave them something to vote for (e.g., medicare for all and an end to genocide in Gaza).

These shifts helped Democrats win in Michigan, Texas and South Carolina, and made a state that normally gets called fifteen minutes after polls close, Mississippi, to remain essentially tied the next morning. 

Also, too, a look at outstanding votes suggests that Scott Colom has a decent chance to give Democrats a 55-45 Senate Majority, and I now think he’ll pull it out. If Peltola pulls it off in Alaska, Dems will have 56 votes in the Senate and still have 55 even if Fetterman switches parties.

Simply. Unbelievable. 

I’ll spend the week parsing data as it comes in, and Scott and I will have much more later this week on Two Crusty Old Combat Soldiers with a Microphone and Foggy Bottom Line Live. I’ll also put together some thoughts on what Democrats should do with these majorities (The obvious corruption investigations and impeachments, of course, but Dems should also pass progressive legislation on data centers, AI, wealth taxes, health care, and restoration of DOGE cuts). Trump will veto any legislation Dems pass, but this gets GOP reps on the record and forces Trump to own it.

Democrats also did very well down ballot, flipping most of the statewide offices in Texas and Governor’s offices in Ohio, Texas, and Iowa. If the Party had gone big in Florida, David Jolly and Angie Nixon might have also won. A referendum in Missouri that would have repealed abortion rights and ban gender transition failed. All three Constitutional Amendments won in Virginia by wide margins, with reproductive rights at 60%.

If you’re a Democrat, savor this very clear rejection of GOP fascist politics that rely on fear of out groups and collaborating with billionaires to make everyone else poor. Progressives won this thing, and we should celebrate the win.

If you’re a Republican, pay attention to this message. If you want to win, you have to reject Trump and his corruption, give up on the culture wars and immigration rage, and come up with policies that help Americans get by.

More to come this week.

Election Day: Foggy Predictions and Other Thoughts

BLUF: This will be a blue wave that will give Democrats control of the US House of Representatives and the US Senate. The wave in the House will be at least a 20 seat change and give Democrats something like a 235-200 majority, and Democrats will control the Senate 53-47. Closer to home, Shannon Taylor will not flip VA CD01.

I can list a lot of reasons why I think this will happen.

  • Young voters who showed up for Trump and other Republicans in 2024 will defect because they did not get the fundamental change – an end to forever wars and a focus on affordability – the voted for. The  capitalist system writ large does not work for them and they figure “might as well break it.” .
  • Young voters also want an end to genocide in Gaza. Social media and the internet ensure that everyone sees video of children being killed there whether they want to or not. This will cause young (and some older) Americans to seek the fundamental change they want from candidates who will promise to stop this genocide. 
  • Culture war rhetoric about trans kids and gay marriage no longer resonate with rural Americans while rising fuel prices and tariffs destroy their farms and the foreign markets for their produce. 
  • Voters are sick of watching billionaires push artificial intelligence from private planes and yachts while AI takes their jobs and housing, fuel, and grocery prices rise rapidly. 
  • Even though wages are rising with prices, people don’t feel this because right to work and at will employment laws make white collar workers anxious about their financial futures. News reports of layoffs have an impact.
  • Health care costs are out of control and voters know whom to blame: health insurance companies and politicians who argue that if you can’t afford it you don’t deserve it. Most voters work very hard and are beginning to become pissed at Republicans who tell them to just work harder. The (correct) feeling that the system is rigged against regular workers is gaining traction. $225B in medical debt has begun to hit Republican voters and it matters.
  • Screaming about who loves and who hates America doesn’t resonate as well during hard times. Voters, especially young voters, don’t have many reasons to love a country that leaves them behind while making them feel like it’s their fault after they did all the right things.
  • Americans want criminal immigrants deported but despise the heavy-handed Gestapo style tactics ICE uses. Watching federal agents who often refuse to identify themselves and do not wear uniforms randomly round up people because they have brown skin leaves a bad taste in their mouths. It doesn’t help that they shoot or assault citizens and then tell us that we won’t have a problem if we just comply.
  • Traditional GOP voters in rural areas, especially farmers, have been hit hard by higher fuel prices (especially diesel) and by tariffs that killed foreign markets for crops like soybeans. Rural America does not have diverse economies, and when agriculture dies the small towns where they do business struggle.
  • Democrats have effectively tied affordability to Trump’s obvious corruption and higher prices to Trump tariff and war policies.

There’s a lot more. What Corey Doctorow calls “enshittification” of everything. Data centers popping up everywhere. Everyone everywhere trying to nickel and dime us wherever we turn (tip jars at fast food restaurants and service fees for everything).

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Midterm Strategy: Ditch the Corporate Consultants for a GOP Performance Review

We’re 30 days out. Democrats look like they’re looking at a blue wave that could shift control of Congress from Republican to Democrat, maybe even the Senate. I want to talk about strategy a little bit because I’m seeing a lot of ads on TV that boil down to, “we gotta stop insider stock trading.” And you’re seeing that from both sides…even the guys that are doing it are bragging about voting for legislation that would stop it.

But Democrats are giving us the same old ads about how mom and dad taught me to work hard and I’ll work hard for you. I was a good prosecutor or state legislator or governor or businessman.

This is the same old corporate consultant bullshit that Democrats have been using to lose since 2016, and it’s time to change it up a little bit. Trump’s been president twice. The GOP has controlled all three branches of government for two years. And they still blame Biden for high gasoline prices.

It’s not Biden’s fault. They’ve had a chance to fix it. They haven’t fixed it.

So it’s time to do two things as a strategy for the midterms for Democrats in these last thirty days.

First, make this election a performance review. The GOP asked for control of Congress and the Senate and the presidency two years ago, and Americans gave it to them. They promised to make life more affordable and keep us out of war.

They did neither, and this begs the old Reagan question: Is your life better now than it was when we gave it to them?

The American people gave them control. We gave them power. What’d they use it for? Tax cuts for billionaires. They didn’t use it to bring your grocery prices down. They didn’t use it to bring your gasoline prices down. They didn’t use it to bring your housing prices down. And in fact, they got us into a war they promised not to get us into that raised all those prices.

Make Republicans talk about their performance just like you would at a job. If you’re a manager at a job, someone’s not performing, you talk to them and you fire them if they don’t straighten up and fly right.

The second thing we need to do is point out that the hundreds of millions of dollars corporations and billionaires and special interests are spending to try to win these seats demonstrates that they like the status quo. They want the status quo.

Seven dollar diesel is good for them because they’re selling diesel. It’s not good for you because you have to buy it to fill your truck up.

The same old corporate consultant stuff doesn’t work. These TV ads don’t change anybody’s minds. They just don’t. They may be good for pointing out to people who don’t pay much attention that there is an election, but they’re not changing anyone’s minds. No one is voting for Shannon Taylor because she said “Mom and dad taught me that hard work would bring success, but that doesn’t happen if we don’t stop the corruption” in a TV ad.

She’s right about that, but it’s not changing anyone’s mind. Instead, Shannon Taylor and other democrats need to be online saying it again and again: they promised to fix it and they just broke it even more.

Hammer home the fact that we gave the Republicans control of all three branches of government two years ago, and they’ve done nothing but create chaos and make things more expensive for everyone. It’s time to hold their feet to the fire because they didn’t do the job we hired them to do.

Point out that the corporations like the status quo just fine because they have power, they have no regulation, they have their tax cuts, and if they keep the same people in power, they’ll just get less regulation and more tax cuts.

And your housing will go up, your fuel costs will go up, your grocery bill will go up. Your interest rates on your credit card will go up because that’s all good for them. It’s all good for the corporations that are dropping millions in these elections blaming immigrants and trans people for the problems they caused.

You can’t blame Joe Biden for $7 diesel. The trans person is not causing $7 diesel fuel. Women who want reproductive health care are not causing $7 diesel fuel.

Republicans have had two years to fix it and they’ve only made it worse.  It’s time to hold their feet to the fire.

Progressives Show Strength in Democratic Primaries

It looks like Progressive candidates, all three with Mayor Mamdani’s endorsement, swept Democratic Party primaries in New York on Tuesday against candidates with Party support. (Paywall).

“Some of the night’s most potent victories for Mamdani’s branch of the party saw DSA-backed political newcomers Claire Valdez and Darializa Avila Chevalier defeating establishment-endorsed candidates, signaling a potent fusion of Mamdani’s grassroots popularity with the DSA’s organizing machine. Avila Chevalier attended a pro-Palestinian rally in 2023 in New York City the day after the Oct. 7 attacks in Israel that was criticized for including speakers who appeared to justify the violence.”

“Elsewhere, former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, also backed by Mamdani, soundly beat incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman in a heated election that also centered on U.S. policy toward Israel and the war in Gaza. Lander supports blocking military aid to Israel.”

This is an extraordinary result, and it’s not confined to New York:

“Progressives have romped through Democrats’ spring primaries, notching a series of wins across both safe and competitive districts and upending House and Senate Democrats’ battleplans. Left flank candidates Randy Villegas and Matt Dunlap trounced the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s preferred picks in a pair of battlegrounds in California and Maine.”

Two of the winners are aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America, and Brad Lander defeated an incumbent Congressman, Dan Goldman, who held the seat since 2022 and was on the impeachment prosecution team. Lander defeated him by 2-1 with support for Israel the main issue.

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Foggy Bottom Line Bonus Episode: Politics and Economic Development in SW Virginia, Featuring Mike McGirr

Mike McGirr is a community activist living in Bristol, Virginia. He grew up on a regenerative farm in Massachusetts where he learned the fundamentals of farming and shaped his lifelong commitment to localized, equitable food systems. Mike works to dismantle barriers that have long disadvantaged farmers of color, small scale producers and under-resourced communities. He also has a degree in graphic design and has handled marketing campaigns for Fortune 100 companies. This year Mike served as the volunteer campaign manager for Cindy Green, who ran for the House of Delegates in Virginia’s 44th District, a deep red district in Southwest Virginia centered on Bristol and Abingdon, near where the Tennesse, Virginia, and North Carolina borders meet. Now he’s running to be the Chair of the Democratic Party of Virginia’s Rural Caucus. Mike joins Scott and me for a discussion of politics in rural areas, economic development in Southwest Virginia, and his ideas for organizing the Rural Caucus and local County committees to grow the Democratic Party in rural spaces and more effectively support candidates.

You can find out more about Mike and his work on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/people/MichaelRay4VA/61583415347341/ and at www.MikeMcGirr4VA.com.

The FBL Theme music is Partners In Crime by Alexander Nakarada, downloaded at https://creatorchords.com. Music promoted by https://www.chosic.com/free-music/all/free-music/ Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0), used by a Creative Commons license: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Foggy Bottom Line Podcast: Elections After Action Review

Scott and I conduct an after action review of yesterday’s election in Virginia, New Jersey, New York, and California. Why did Democrats more or less run the table, in some cases by flipping districts Trump won last year?

You can find this and other FBL content on YouTube, Spotify, TikTok, and Instagram. Check us out, subscribe, like, comment, share, and let us know what you think.

No Kings Day in Williamsburg

Yesterday I spoke at the No Kings rally at the Williamsburg/James City County (WJCC) Courthouse, and thought I’d post a video of my remarks here.

Experts estimated the crowd at about six thousand people. I can tell you that protestors lined Monticello Avenue five or six deep for about a quarter mile or more, and many more gathered on the lawn next to the courthouse and the terrace where the speakers stood.

I can tell you that I saw elderly folks who clearly needed assistance to be there and still showed up. I spoke with middle-aged folks who remember Jim Crow and understand that Trump and his minions want to bring back oppression of out-groups and minorities of all kinds. And I engaged with young people who see very clearly that the system created by corporate capitalism simply does not work for them because they came too late to the party – the billionaires have already hoovered up all the wealth and they have no plan to share it or use it for the greater good.

The people I spoke with understand that MAGA is angry because Trump and his minions have lied to them about the state of the Nation and created fear in their hearts of people who live differently, love differently, and worship differently than they do. They lied to them so they can cripple the state, pervert law and order, and expand their fascist project of oppression.

Thanks to Heather Allen Meany and her team (looking at you, Rex!) for organizing this and creating a wonderful event with amazing speakers, including Lisa Vidernikova Khana (candidate for Congress in the First Congressional District, Ty Hodges (candidate for WJCC School Board), Diane Carter de Mayo (Chair of the Virginia First Congressional District Democratic Committee), Jason Moulenbelt (Marine Corps veteran and philosophy professor), Jessica Anderson (candidate for the Virginia House of Delegates in the 71st District), and Mark Downey (Pediatrician and incumbent Delegate and candidate for reelection in the 69th District).

None of these people were paid to organize this event. None of the protesters were paid to attend. Patriotic Americans – the real core of the American identity, those of us who believe in a Nation indivisible, with liberty and justice for all – showed up for free.

Jay Jones and Political Violence

As you probably know, the big news in Virginia politics this week, are the texts that Jay Jones, candidate for attorney general, sent to Delegate Carrie Coyner back in 2022, discussing basically the murder of former House of Delegates Speaker Todd Gilbert and Gilbert’s children.

I know Jay Jones. It’s hard for me to believe that he wrote this even as a joke. I don’t understand it. He’s apologized. But, you know, the fact that it entered his head at all is problematic, much less that he put it in a text.

It goes without saying that wishing political opponents and their children dead over a policy disagreement is way outside the bounds of acceptable political discourse, even as a joke or a suggestion that “if they only suffer from their own policies, they might change their minds.”

We can and should do better. And yes, as both an expression of a thought that political violence has a place in policy disputes and as a demonstration of very, very poor judgment – the kind of poor judgement no one wants to see in an attorney general – disqualifies him. His rhetoric disqualifies him. But let’s take a step back and talk a little bit about political violence more broadly.

Yes, assassination certainly counts as political violence and is indeed perhaps the ultimate example. We should work to convince people that Charlie Kirk was wrong on the merits of his policy ideas and even his religion. Simply murdering him without warning violates our most fundamental values and ethics. It’s immoral, plain and simple. 

That said, the America we know today was constructed on a foundation of political violence, starting with forced migration of Africans as slaves. The Boston Tea Party, the American Revolution, genocide against the indigenous peoples who lived here before Europeans arrived, and the attempt by the slave states to protect and expand the right to own human beings as property are all examples of political violence in our history.

Political violence continued after the Civil War in the form of Black Codes, Jim Crow, sundown towns, redlining, and other efforts to suppress the political power of outgroups. Our history is one long thread of political violence, mostly against the weak and defenseless, and mostly justified by those in power as necessary.

Today, ICE raids and the deployment of military forces to American cities look an awful lot like political violence designed to continue the suppression of groups and individuals seen by those in power as illegitimate political actors. The difference between the assassination of Kirk, or Jones’s rhetoric of murdered opponents is that, in this case, it’s agents of the State committing the political violence in our name.

Agents of the State invade apartment buildings. Agents of the state detain Americans without warrants or any kind of probable cause.

Agents of the state kidnap children in Chicago, some of them naked, and held them for no reason on the pretense of searching for gang members who were not there. 

Agents of the state detain people, some of them American citizens, almost all of them lawful residents following the law and deport them to foreign prisons where they cannot apply for redress of this unlawful detention and deportation.

Agents of the state occupy cities on the false pretense of reducing crime where local governments have quite effectively reduced it without their assistance, and who have not asked for that assistance. We know they do this under false pretenses because they end up picking up trash, not fighting crime. 

Now, for those of you who may have forgotten, these were key elements of the Founders’ grievances against the British Crown in 1776.

Quoting the Declaration of Independence:

“For transporting us beyond seas to be tried for pretended offenses:

He has kept among us in times of peace, standing armies without the consent of our legislatures:

For quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:

For protecting them by a mock trial from punishment for any murders which they should commit on the inhabitants of these states:”

For all the caterwauling by Jason Miyares, his running mate Winsome Sears, and Governor Youngkin about Jones’s violent political rhetoric, they all support political violence as long as it’s committed by agents of the state controlled by their Party.

Jones would push back against this. Miyares will not. 

For this reason, although I believe Jones is not qualified by temperament or judgment to serve as Virginia’s Attorney General, I believe Miyares’ support for Trump and the anti-democratic Republican Party makes him even less qualified.

I therefore plan to vote for Jones and urge my fellow Virginians to do the same. 

Once elected, I would then urge Jones to resign and allow the General Assembly to select his replacement. If Republicans control the legislature after the election, they can appoint Jason Miyares. 

That’s my two cents on this subject, and that’s probably all I’m ever going to say about it again.

Circular Firing Squad, Voter Suppression Edition

Here’s a good rundown of the internal Republican Party of Virginia argument over how to nominate statewide candidates. Writing at the Bull Elephant, Doc Troxel lays it out clearly. The State Central Committee finally settled on what they call an “unassembled convention” with what amounts to 37 mini-conventions at Party-run polling locations across the Commonwealth. You can also read Lynn Mitchell’s more succinct account at Bearing Drift.

I can’t improve on Troxell’s explanation – he was in these meetings – so I won’t try. My crack at a TL;dr is that because this system limits the number of votes from each local Unit (even if it does not limit the number of delegates from each local Unit) it creates incentives for candidates to capture local unit delegations, as they would in a more…conventional…convention. Sorry.

As I read it, the minority faction fought for a primary because they believe their preferred candidate, Amanda Chase, can win the nomination with a 35% plurality in a large field. They’re less confident in her ability to win a majority at a convention with rank-choice voting. Of course, they frame the problem as “establishment RINOs” controlling the convention results to make sure Chase has no chance, but it’s not clear how including the broader GOP electorate across Virginia helps the most extremist potential nominee.

In any event, I followed the saga as it unfolded and I think it’s important to note that through the entire debate the core question focused on how to best keep opponents from voting. We see no willingness among any of these factions to form a coalition in support of a set of common goals based on commonly accepted social agreements. At every turn each one sought to expand access to their members and deny it to others.

When someone tells you who they are believe them – and the GOP is telling us that conservatives see a no path to power in building coalitions. Easier to simply shut opponents out of the electoral process altogether, and Republicans across the country have moved to do this to Democrats.

In Virginia they turn this weapon on each other.

Thoughts on Elections During National Emergencies

Voting in Person, 2019
Photo Credit: R. Stanton Scott

An authoritarian figure who has joked about being President for life runs the Federal Government during a pandemic that could literally kill millions of Americans and disrupt society for months. States are postponing primary elections and struggling to figure out how voters can cast ballots while keeping social distancing. Understandably, some people worry that Donald Trump might take advantage of the crisis to stay in power.

Lots of journalists have written about this, including Evan Halper in the LA Times, Blake Rutherford for The Hill, and Chris Cillizza for CNN. The general assessment boils down to “Trump may be desperate with the economy in the tank but has no power to postpone elections. His term ends on 20 January 2021 even if he could, and the Presidential Succession Act kicks in if he isn’t reelected or replaced through a Constitutional election before that time.” 

These discussions focus narrowly on two questions: whether States could physically hold elections during a pandemic using modern systems and what would happen if they couldn’t. Most agree that elections can take place if state legislatures hurry up and figure out how to use expanded absentee voting, other voting by mail systems, or even the internet. They also think that if for some reason elections cannot be held, someone other than Trump would take power based on existing statute.

What none of these articles mention is the Electoral College and the role of state legislatures in choosing these Electors. This is the group that actually elects the President, as we found out the hard way in 2016. These days voters choose these Electors by casting votes at polling stations or by mail because state legislatures want it that way – this is not a Constitutional requirement. This means that elections for President and Vice President can take place as long as state legislatures can meet and choose Electors before Election Day.  

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