Introduction

Since a few people on social media have challenged my conclusion that Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza since the Hamas attack on 7 October 2023, I feel a need to formally lay out a short version of why I believe this to be true.

First, I will briefly outline efforts to negotiate a cease fire agreement and the current state of affairs. From there I will proceed with some definitions and then present evidence that Israeli conduct of the war against Hamas in Gaza meets the criteria for genocide and that Israeli rhetoric supports this conclusion. I rely heavily on a UN Commission Report, news articles, and reports from Israeli human rights groups.

Efforts to End the Fighting

This is an ongoing war, and facts on the ground are changing. In November 2023 the Biden Administration, in collaboration with Qatar, negotiated a cease fire and what amounted to a hostage/prisoner swap. Fighting resumed on 1 December 2023 when both sides accused the other of violating its terms.

The two sides concluded another cease fire in January 2025, this one to be implemented in three phases. The first phase saw another hostage/prisoner exchange, Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and resumption of humanitarian aid. Future phases would have included further exchanges of hostages and prisoners, discussions on the specifics of a permanent cessation of hostilities, demilitarization of Gaza, and peacekeepers or mediators to monitor the truce. This deal broke down largely because President Biden’s term ended, and two weeks after Trump took office, on 4 February 2025, he announced his intention to expel Palestinians from Gaza and for the US to take control of the territory. This amounted to a green light to Isreal to do as they pleased and hostilities resumed when Israel launched a surprise attack on 18 March, 2025. This attack included the bombing of a hospital complex that killed more than 400 people and wounded another 500. Israel accused Hamas of forcing it to resume hostilities by delaying the return of bodies of Israelis who died in captivity, thus ending the cease fire.

Hamas and Israel agreed to a third cease fire, also a phased cease fire, on 10 October 2025. This 20-point plan, presented by Trump in an apparent effort to win a Nobel Peace Prize (he didn’t), would become effective in three phases. The first phase terms included an Israeli military withdrawal to agreed-upon positions, release of all 48 hostages held by Hamas, including those who have died since military operations began, subsequent release of 250 Palestinians convicted or suspected of security crimes as well as about 1700 Palestinians detained in Gaza during operations, and repatriation of Hamas fighters killed. Prisoners convicted of killing Israelis would be released but barred permanently from entering Israel or the West Bank. Additionally, Israel would end their blockade of the Gaza Strip and allow humanitarian aid such as food and medications as well as materials and equipment needed to begin repairing damaged infrastructure.

The second phase would include demilitarization of Hamas and Gaza, “de-radicalization” of the territory, and a stabilization (peace-keeping) force of US, Arab, and European personnel. These peacekeepers would also train a Palestinian police force created to ensure stability and peace. Stakeholders would establish a Palestinian Committee during phase three to oversee day-to-day governance and reconstruction, including support for Palestinians who choose to stay and rebuild. The ultimate goal, should de-radicalization, reconstruction, and reform of the Palestinian Authority proceed peacefully, is acknowledgement of Palestine as a state.

Most diplomats consider this more of a pause than a cease fire, and facts on the ground seem to confirm this perception. Israel has accused Hamas of violating the truce by delaying transfer of some remains, an allegation that Hamas planned to crack down on Palestinian clans inside Gaza who support Israel, and a few small claims that Hamas had fired on Israeli troops. For their part, Israel has conducted aerial and drone strikes within Gaza that killed at least 7 Palestinians, closed the Rafah border crossing and reduced humanitarian aid, and conducting further air strikes on October 19. If we call this a war, it has not ended; both sides have refused to move to the second phase.

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