BLUF: This will be a blue wave that will give Democrats control of the US House of Representatives and the US Senate. The wave in the House will be at least a 20 seat change and give Democrats something like a 235-200 majority, and Democrats will control the Senate 53-47. Closer to home, Shannon Taylor will not flip VA CD01.

I can list a lot of reasons why I think this will happen.

• Young voters who showed up for Trump and other Republicans in 2024 will defect because they did not get the fundamental change – an end to forever wars and a focus on affordability – the voted for. The  capitalist system writ large does not work for them and they figure “might as well break it.” .
• Young voters also want an end to genocide in Gaza. Social media and the internet ensure that everyone sees video of children being killed there whether they want to or not. This will cause young (and some older) Americans to seek the fundamental change they want from candidates who will promise to stop this genocide. 
• Culture war rhetoric about trans kids and gay marriage no longer resonate with rural Americans while rising fuel prices and tariffs destroy their farms and the foreign markets for their produce. 
• Voters are sick of watching billionaires push artificial intelligence from private planes and yachts while AI takes their jobs and housing, fuel, and grocery prices rise rapidly. 
• Even though wages are rising with prices, people don’t feel this because right to work and at will employment laws make white collar workers anxious about their financial futures. News reports of layoffs have an impact.
• Health care costs are out of control and voters know whom to blame: health insurance companies and politicians who argue that if you can’t afford it you don’t deserve it. Most voters work very hard and are beginning to become pissed at Republicans who tell them to just work harder. The (correct) feeling that the system is rigged against regular workers is gaining traction. $225B in medical debt has begun to hit Republican voters and it matters.
• Screaming about who loves and who hates America doesn’t resonate as well during hard times. Voters, especially young voters, don’t have many reasons to love a country that leaves them behind while making them feel like it’s their fault after they did all the right things.
• Americans want criminal immigrants deported but despise the heavy-handed Gestapo style tactics ICE uses. Watching federal agents who often refuse to identify themselves and do not wear uniforms randomly round up people because they have brown skin leaves a bad taste in their mouths. It doesn’t help that they shoot or assault citizens and then tell us that we won’t have a problem if we just comply.
• Traditional GOP voters in rural areas, especially farmers, have been hit hard by higher fuel prices (especially diesel) and by tariffs that killed foreign markets for crops like soybeans. Rural America does not have diverse economies, and when agriculture dies the small towns where they do business struggle.
• Democrats have effectively tied affordability to Trump’s obvious corruption and higher prices to Trump tariff and war policies.

There’s a lot more. What Corey Doctorow calls “enshittification” of everything. Data centers popping up everywhere. Everyone everywhere trying to nickel and dime us wherever we turn (tip jars at fast food restaurants and service fees for everything).

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