Early this morning, the US conducted military operations in Venezuela with the objective of capturing Venezuelan President Maduro. This operation appears to have been successful in that US agents did take the President into custody, along with his wife. Trump said in a press conference that no US servicemembers were killed, though a few were injured. The extent of Venezuelan casualties, military and civilian, is unknown.
While it seems that US military forces conducted the operations, Trump administration officials have characterized this as a law enforcement operation and execution of an arrest warrant, apparently issued under a 2022 indictment, for the President, his wife, and brother. They should be arraigned on charges by Monday morning.
Whatever the purpose and justification, this is an unprovoked act of war and almost certainly illegal under US and international law.
Trump claimed this morning that the US will control Venezuela until a stable local regime can take over, but he has no soldiers on the ground and the nation remains in the hands of Maduro’s government, legitimate or not.
This is a moving target that I am watching from an international relations theory perspective. IR theories lay out thoughts on the behavior of nations and states, and I’m interested in how the Trump regime and its actions validate, or invalidate, these theories.
There is of course also an interesting domestic political thread here inasmuch as the current divide within the MAGA movement over “America First” could be widened further by this kind of intervention. One under-discussed part of the US Presidential election in 2024 is how young people (as well as some Boomers!) on both the left and right opposed Biden policy toward Israel. On the left this was due to Biden’s support for what they see as genocide in Gaza; on the right it was about “why are we spending money to protect Israel when we have troubles of our own” with a bit of antisemitism tossed in.
Trump ran on an anti-war platform in 2024 but has unilaterally initiated military operations in the Caribbean, Middle East, and Africa.
I’ll have more to say about this as things develop, and will cover the topic on Monday during the first Monday Morning Coffee live show at 10AM Eastern.
