A Fourth American Republic?

I’m working on putting together an online American government course intended for homeschoolers and adult learners – think high school senior AP class that would look like a college freshman class – and my research on the Reconstruction era got me into The Rise and Fall of the Second American Republic, by Manisha Sinha. The title borrows from Shirer’s The Collapse of the Third Republic, an examination of the fall of France to the Nazis in 1940. This framing of French history refers to the series of democratic (more or less) revolutions that ended monarchies and established something resembling parliamentary democracy.

Sinha frames American history in a similar way without the monarchy part, with the First Republic established by the original Constitution and the Second Republic she refers to coming through Reconstruction and the Reconstruction Amendments ratified after the Civil War ended in Confederate defeat. I’ll try to write a more comprehensive review once I’ve read the book, but the short version of her argument as I understand it now is that Reconstruction established, for a time, a true multi-ethnic democratic republic based on the abolition of slavery. In her reading reconstruction also opened a pathway for women’s suffrage and greater independence from husbands and fathers, in part at least as a result of the role women played in the abolition movement. Sadly, this Republic died at the hands of Black Codes, Jim Crow laws, and segregation.

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Chaos and Power

A few weeks ago I spoke at a Hands Off rally in Williamsburg. I had just read Raymond King’s short book, The Psychopath Mantra: Chaos is Power, and focused my speech on ways the conservative movement uses the methods outlined in the book to create a chaotic environment that they use to grasp and hold power. The short version: American fascists work hard to keep people wondering what’s going on so they can take control of institutions and use them to complete their goals while most folks are distracted.

I want to discuss the connection between chaos and power, and how today’s current conservative elites use chaos to distract enough people to achieve their goals. First, however, a short discussion of King’s book, because I think he gives us a broad outline showing how they have accomplished so much.

King characterizes the book on his website as taking the reader “inside the predatory mind of the ruling class,” and it does that, though not terribly well. He numbers the paragraphs for some reason, he does not give examples, and he does not attempt to make a cohesive argument. He makes excellent points and offers important insights, but he does not state a thesis or create a logical argument in support of one. Indeed, the book has a satirical vibe, as if he’s written a self-help book for aspiring members of the ruling class.

Nonetheless I read his argument as follows: the ruling class consists of shameless psychopaths who manipulate morality, set themselves up as martyrs by constructing a concept of sacrifice that gives them prestige, create resentment among the masses, and reconstruct truth to suit their needs, all in an effort to take and hold power.

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What’s Behind the Hegseth General Officer Memo?

On Tuesday, Defense Secretary issued a memo calling on the US military services to reduce the number of General and Flag officers by 20% across the board, with another 10% reduction associated with realignment of the Unified Combined Plan.

As a general matter, this appears to be a good idea. R. D. Hooker argued in Defense One last December that “surplus generals, swollen staffs, and excess headquarters drain headcount and resources from warfighting units.” He cites the Army’s Installation Management Command (IMC), which took over military installation management from local commanders in 2006 as falling short in its mission of applying “common standards and greater expertise” to managing Army infrastructure. Leaving aside that Hooker points only to substandard barracks conditions to support his claim, he does correctly point out that the ratio of officers to enlisted soldiers has increased 21% since 9/11.

Some began making this case almost 15 years ago. Ben Freeman, writing for the Project on Government Oversight (POGO), called it “Star Creep” and noted that despite then SecDef Robert Gates “efficiency initiatives,” and successor SecDef Leon Panetta’s expressed support, the Department of Defense added 6 General of Flag officers in 2011 rather than eliminate a planned 17 billets.

I think the issue is more complicated that a simple calculation of percentages officers in the force, and my concern here is not whether the US military should or should not reduce the size of its officer corps. My concern is the administration that has set out to do it.

The first problem is that Hegseth and the current administration seems to think it can cut budgets and workforces simply by lopping some set percentage off the top. It may well be that the percentage cuts ordered in the memo make sense, but Trump and his team have demonstrated that they act without thinking, with no consideration for unintended consequences or follow-on effects. Tariffs appear to be the most obvious example, but I think a better comparison is to the cuts to the US Agency for International Development. Cutting foreign aid, like reducing the number of General and Flag officers may or may not be a good idea. The argument that we should take care of homeless veterans before we worry about people starving overseas resonates. But no one in Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency seems to have considered the effects on American farmers who produced and sold many of the commodities purchased by USAID and sent overseas. These cuts also affect agricultural research and training that reduces the cost of food and helps protect food sources. Virginia alone will lose more than $7.24 billion in contracts and assistance. This causes uncertainty among farmers and other producers, and whatever the wisdom of this policy the administration should have taken a measured approach to these cuts so those affected could prepare and reduce the hit.

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Circular Firing Squad?

Screen shot from Facebook video of the February 23 Virginia Republican Party State Central Committee meeting.

The inner workings and various factions that make up Virginia’s Republican Party fascinate me, and I’ve been attending Tea Party meetings and following the debate between these factions pretty much since I moved to Hanover County in 2008. The short non-academic version is that a very active and motivated base has worked to take over the Virginia GOP for more than a decade. This base very much wants to enforce a kind of ideological purity that focuses far more on cultural issues than policy.

This intra-Party insurgency initially manifested itself in the capture of local Virginia GOP units by Tea Party activists after Barack Obama won the Presidency. Ideologically, this group is to the right of what I call “Chamber of Commerce” Republicans (defined as conservatives who want small government but want it to actually work). Think of this as the “conservatives lose elections because they’re not conservative enough” crowd.

They successfully won the 7th District Congressional nomination for Dave Brat over House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in 2014 because the very conservative Cantor was not conservative enough to suit them – these activists ousted a very powerful Congressman for ideological reasons. Brat went on to win the seat and served two terms before Abigail Spanberger won the seat in 2018. She held it in 2020, but narrowly.

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Blue Collar Billionaire

We’re at a place in American politics where conservative leaders make the claim the Republican Party represents regular Americans rather than Country Club elites.

This comes from a Senator who got his degrees from Princeton and Harvard. A Senator who ran to warm-weather Cancun from a winter disaster in his home State instead of volunteering to help out the…blue collar…workers in Texas who were freezing to death because the free-market policies he supports drive profits, not reliable utility services.

In support of someone who literally owns – and lives at – a country club.

Unlike Beto O’Rourke and Julian Castro.

Not to mention Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Wouldn’t the States Have the Receipts?

We’re right to worry about whether the Republican Party as an organization would sanction executing the plan outlined in this Newsweek opinion column. I have no doubt in my military mind that Donald Trump would do anything he could to stay in power, and that the Conservative movement (defined as the GOP and associated think tanks and interest groups) would do anything to keep a conservative in power. If those interests align and leaders see a unique opportunity, an attempt to establish a Presidency that lacked popular support is not out of the question.

I’ve written before about the Republican Project as I see it: a long-term conservative effort to capture the legal institutions necessary to keep power without having to bother assembling a coalition that can win elections, and block progressive legislation when they can’t. They would use these institutions to protect friends and hurt enemies, and to uphold orders restricting the right to vote while blocking local rules that would protect it. Once in control of these institutions, conservatives would use that control to protect their power if possible.

As I read the Newsweek scenario, it boils down to this: Biden wins the popular vote as well as the Electoral College on the strength of wins in four swing states which all have GOP legislative majorities. Trump and the GOP establishment challenge the result arguing that counterfeit ballots printed by China (presumably an anti-Trump Chinese intelligence operation) made the difference in those four states. Trump declares a national emergency and a national security investigation, which delays appointment of their Electors. Neither candidate assembles a majority in the Electoral College and the House, with its majority of GOP state delegations, would decide the election in favor of Trump.

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A Good Sign for Criminal Justice Reform and Progressive Policy

One of the things we sometimes lose sight of during the “we need change now” and “but it’s politically difficult” discussion at the Presidential level is that a lot of real change happens at the local level. I’m convinced, for example, that the rising number of Commonwealth’s Attorney candidates in Virginia who ran on decriminalizing cannabis and criminal justice reform in general allowed the General Assembly to take action. They could see voters from both sides of the political spectrum support these campaigns, and this gave them “permission” in a way.

These local elections also matter in the sense that they help the Progressive coalition build a bench of candidates and elected officials with the experience and chops to run for higher office. Today’s Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney is tomorrow’s Virginia Attorney General.

This played out in Oregon last night, when Mike Schmidt won a District Attorney race in Multomah County (Portland area) by a landslide on a very progressive platform.

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Gun Rights: A Somewhat Forgotten but Essential Liberty (Guest Post by Sandy Sanders)

This guest post by my friend Sandy Sanders is his second in the Lincoln-Douglas Debates II series – the Sanders-Scott Debates. The first entries, on abortion policy, are here and here. Sandy’s entry on this issue is also posted at Virginia Right. You can read my entry on this issue at Foggy Bottom Line here.

Your Vote in November for President Could Decide your Right to Keep and Bear Arms!

It may not happen again. But I have to thank Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for demonstrating the essential importance of gun rights enshrined in basic law (from the CBC):

Trudeau announces ban on 1,500 types of ‘assault-style’ firearms — effective immediately

A couple of little gems from the article:

“These weapons were designed for one purpose and one purpose only: to kill the largest number of people in the shortest amount of time,” Trudeau said. “There is no use and no place for such weapons in Canada.”
While he acknowledged that most firearms owners are law-abiding citizens, he said hunters don’t need this sort of firepower.

To be honest, the firepower needed to hunt is none of the government’s business. And it gets worse – it’s not even an Act of Parliament (as bad as that might be) it is a regulation:

The ban will be enacted through regulations approved by an order-in-council from cabinet — not through legislation. Trudeau said the government was ready to enact this campaign promise months ago, before the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the legislative agenda.

Here is the text of the Second Amendment:

A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed.

And Virginia (Virginia was first: June 12, 1776 – Art. I, Sect. 13):

That a well regulated militia, composed of the body of the people, trained to arms, is the proper, natural, and safe defense of a free state, therefore, the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed; that standing armies, in time of peace, should be avoided as dangerous to liberty; and that in all cases the military should be under strict subordination to, and governed by, the civil power.

The language is very similar. Here is the corresponding right to keep and bear arms in the Canadian Constitution:

It’s blank. There isn’t any. And now the people in Canada have lost an important and essential liberty: the right to keep and bear arms.

This is a good start for an essay on guns. Alas, I have to move to, not too exciting for most readers, court cases.

The issue on what does the Second Amendment mean was not squarely placed before the Supreme Court until 2008. (Yes there was a Depression-era case involving sawed-off shotguns [United States v. Miller, 307 U.S. 174 (1939)] that held that possession of such a weapon that was was not part of the arsenal of a militia was not protected by the Second Amendment.) Some think that is because few questioned the Second Amendment right until more recently.

In 2008, the Supreme Court of the United States held that a non-felonious citizen has a right to possess a weapon in self-defense (subject to certain administrative requirements) in District of Columbia, et al. v. Heller [554 U.S. 570 (2008)]:

In sum, we hold that the District’s ban on handgun possession in the home violates the Second Amendment, as does its prohibition against rendering any lawful fire-arm in the home operable for the purpose of immediate self-defense. Assuming that Heller is not disqualified from the exercise of Second Amendment rights, the District must permit him to register his handgun and must issue him a license to carry it in the home.

There are a number of exceptions:

Although we do not undertake an exhaustive historical analysis today of the full scope of the Second Amendment, nothing in our opinion should be taken to cast doubt on longstanding prohibitions on the possession of firearms by felons and the mentally ill, or laws forbidding the carrying of firearms in sensitive places such as schools and government buildings, or laws imposing conditions and qualifications on the commercial sale of arms

There is also an exception (admittedly very unclear) prohibiting “dangerous and unusual” weapons. It could be read to prohibit “assault weapons”. That case will someday reach the Court.

I apologize for all the legal cases and there is one more but it can be easily discussed: McDonald, et al. v. Chicago (561 U.S. 742 [2010]) where the Second Amendment is “incorporated” into the Fourteenth Amendment and thus enforceable against state and local governments.

Alas, there is little analysis in all these cases. What judicial scrutiny – what standard does a government restriction on the right to keep and bear arms have to meet to be constitutional. Strict scrutiny is a very compelling state interest and the least restrictive alternative must be used. Rational based scrutiny is pretty much what it implies: If the state law has a rational basis, it will be upheld. There is also an intermediate level of scrutiny. It requires the government to assert an important interest and there has to be a substantial basis between the state law and the important governmental interest. It is very likely that the right to bear arms will either have strict scrutiny or intermediate scrutiny.

Most of the explicit constitutional rights (e.g, freedom of expression) receive strict scrutiny and so does some classifications (race-based classifications); the major classification that receives the intermediate level of scrutiny is gender-based classifications.

This would speak powerfully for strict scrutiny but the Fourth Circuit (the federal appellate court that has jurisdiction over Virginia) has adopted the intermediate level of scrutiny and upheld the so-called “assault weapons” ban. (The federal court held that assault weapons were military style weapons and not protected by the Second Amendment at all.)

There is one major problem with not applying strict scrutiny to Second Amendment rights: An explicit personal right gets less constitutional protection (“…small not be infringed”) than another explicit personal right (“Congress small make no law…”). There has to be an important reason for such a distinction.

The Supreme Court will decide this issue at some time. Virginia laws such as the banning of most private sales or transfers of firearms (so-called “Universal Background Checks – a misleading term at best in that universal background checks are in fact required for all sales through federally-licensed dealers), and the so-called “red flag” laws (which raise another constitutional issue: Procedural due process – is the manner the state provides for a hearing to be heard on the deprivation of gun rights fundamentally fair); I think the one gun a month law is probably constitutional.

I suggest that both of these laws are constitutionally problematic. Banning an entire class of gun sales is a clear infringement on the right to bear arms probably not shown to effectively prevent mass shootings but will affect the right to self-defense. Red flag laws could be constitutional if the firearm possession issue is subordinate to the matter at hand: Is the owner of the firearm(s) a threat to him/herself or others? If so, custody could be the answer without emphasizing gun rights. (A relative or friend could have authority to temporarily seize the gun(s) until a later court says give them back to the owner.) The fact that it takes law enforcement to start the process under the Virginia red flag law leans the law toward it being constitutional. Finally, there are two ancillary issues, one fairly important and another not as critical to courts looking at the law as written: The important issue is that protected speech cannot be a reason to take guns, even if that speech is “mean and hateful”. The speech has to be a clear imminent threat to violence. The second is that different countries and cities in Virginia might have unstated but very different standards for the seeking and taking of guns. I would think Wise County would have a very different view of the criteria to remove guns than say Arlington County. But that might arise after the law is in effect for some time but not compelling to its initial constitutional review. Judges will assume fair and even application of a law in its initial review.

I apologize for all the legal stuff! Hence I must close with this: Four justices of the Supreme Court (Justices Sotomayor, Ginsburg, Breyer and Stevens) held in BOTH Heller and McDonald basically held that there is NO personal right to bear arms. Stevens has even after he left the Court, suggested the Second Amendment ought to be repealed. Stevens was replaced by Justice Elena Kagan who is not likely to be materially different on gun rights.

Let us also remember (please note to the Public Safety Minister in Canada) that one right to the right to keep and bear arms – which I am afraid the late and great Justice Scalia did not adequately give enough credit to in Heller: An armed citizenry is a threat to tyrannical government.

James Madison is quoted as saying both the right to bear arms and limited government are defenses against tyranny:

Besides the advantage of being armed, which the Americans possess over the people of almost every other nation, the existence of subordinate governments, to which the people are attached, and by which the militia officers are appointed, forms a barrier against the enterprises of ambition, more insurmountable than any which a simple government of any form can admit of. Notwithstanding the military establishments in the several kingdoms of Europe, which are carried as far as the public resources will bear, the governments are afraid to trust the people with arms.”

George Washington said:

“A free people ought not only to be armed, but disciplined; to which end a uniform and well-digested plan is requisite; and their safety and interest require that they should promote such manufactories as tend to render them independent of others for essential, particularly military, supplies.” 

Both quotes came from here.

Thankfully, the people of the US have as Jefferson put it, “the rational and peaceable instrument of reform”, the ballot.

Alas it is today unfortunately true: Who you cast that ballot for in 2020 for President and United States Senate is critical to the continuance to your right to bear arms. I’d run ads in key states saying exactly that.

Trained and Trusted: Militias and the Second Amendment

This is the second in the Lincoln-Douglas Debates II series – the Sanders-Scott Debates. The first entries, on abortion policy, are here and here. You can read Sandy’s entry on this issue at Virginia Right. Crossposted at Virginia Right.

Military service taught me a lot about weapons.  No Army officer would issue a sidearm, rifle, or tank to anyone who had not demonstrated training proficiency and trustworthiness.  We didn’t let just anyone walk around armed.  

I learned to use weapons when necessary but to secure them at all times.  No shame fell more heavily on a soldier than when he or she lost, misused, or simply could not control an assigned weapon. I simply don’t understand how people can so cavalierly support the idea that more firearms, in the hands of just anyone who wants to have one, could possibly make society safer – or that people who misuse or fail to secure those weapons should not face punishment.

Arming random citizens does not make us safer. To be sure, a firearm owner will, from time to time, use a firearm in self-defense. When this happens, it can stop crime and even save lives. More often someone uses the weapon to inflict harm on others or themselves. Someone steals a rifle and uses it to kill several people and then commit suicide. Every year, 23K Americans use their own weapon and skip the first step. Or the owner leaves it on a coffee table where a toddler finds it and plays a bit of tragic shoot-out with another child. Or drops it and accidently shoots someone in a grocery store. These are all failures we can minimize with more training, just as we did in the Army, but simply putting more guns into circulation will not stop this. Guns don’t save lives any more than they kill people. People save lives, with or without a gun, by knowing what they’re doing.

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