Game Recognizes Game

According to ProPublica (a very important investigative journalism magazine that everyone should read), Trump’s Department of Justice intervened to rescue Susan Collins from an FBI investigation into what amounts to bribery.

“But the company did have such a proposal: Navatek was hungry for more government contracts in Maine. If they cut a big check, the CEO told Reed, Navatek wanted Collins to guarantee tens of millions of dollars in additional federal funding.

To skirt campaign finance laws and conceal the source of the funds, Navatek planned to funnel the donation through a shell company. The CEO wanted assurance that Collins would know where the money came from. Reed confirmed that she would, the executive said — and that Navatek would get its government contracts.


After the Corner Bakery meeting, Navatek’s CEO, Martin Kao, sent an initial $150,000 to the Collins super PAC using the shell company. Two months later, he told Navatek executives that Collins committed to getting the company $32 million in naval contracts, according to an internal company email reviewed by ProPublica.


Three years later, Kao holed up in a conference room to recount the Corner Bakery meeting to a group of four FBI agents and federal prosecutors. The FBI had seen through his shell company ruse, and in 2022 a grand jury indicted him for making illegal campaign contributions. No one working for Collins was charged.
“

In fact, Trump’s DOJ no longer investigates corruption in any meaningful way, and is more likely to do what it did here when faced with real corruption: look the other way and drop investigations when it serves his purposes.

Instead, Trump’s DOJ files specious charges against political opponents, former aides who don’t spread his lies, or just people he doesn’t like.

The Speech That Broke the Frame

How the 2026 State of the Force Became a Stress Test for American Civil–Military Norms

By Scott Konopasek

One would think that a Secretary of Defense addressing a room full of senior officers would be boring, unheralded, and ignored by the media. That used to be the case. But like so much else in American governance, even this has become political theater.

Hegseth’s “State of the Force” is not an established Pentagon ritual. It’s not a long‑running institutional tradition. It is a new political invention — created and branded by Hegseth and the Trump administration, first informally in 2025 and then formalized in 2026.

Last week, Hegseth delivered a speech that sounded less like a briefing for generals and admirals and more like a campaign rally spliced with a revival meeting. He fired off slurs at transgender troops, mocked “woke generals,” invoked scripture as operational guidance, and announced a 20 percent purge of senior officers as if he were reading off a grocery list. He unveiled a new Office of Religious Affairs reporting directly to him — bypassing the chaplain corps — and declared that the “real battle is spiritual.”

The Atlantic described the room as “frozen.” General officers sat stiffly, hands folded, faces blank. They knew better than to cheer. A small number of junior officers clapped at a few applause lines before they, too, went quiet. They could feel the line between civilian control and partisan political theater bending. And they also knew something else: the speech wasn’t aimed at them. It was aimed at an audience outside the building — a political audience.

A Purge Not Called a Purge

Hegseth insisted that firing 10 percent of generals and eliminating another 10 percent of billets was “accountability,” not a purge. But the officers listening understood the message: loyalty is now a qualification, neutrality is risky, and dissent is terminal.

Mid‑career officers — the people who actually make the Department of Defense function — reacted with fear and confusion in internal morale surveys. They worry about promotion pathways, ideological vetting, and the sudden disappearance of mentors and institutional memory within their service. Senior leaders have warned the White House that readiness is already suffering.

The military is built on consistency and continuity. You cannot remove one‑fifth of senior leadership and rewrite long‑standing norms without shaking the ranks and degrading readiness.

The Culture War in Uniform

The speech’s most quoted line — “No fatties, no trannies, no beardos, no weirdos, no wimps, no radicals. Just warriors.” — ricocheted across social media within minutes. Some veteran influencers celebrated it as a return to “warrior ethos.” But veterans who have actually led troops — the ones who understand cohesion and morale — saw something else.

Hegseth wasn’t describing standards. He was describing identity — who belongs and who doesn’t — and testosterone was one of the markers he used.

Democratic veterans in Congress responded immediately. Pat Ryan called the speech “pathetic” and “beneath the dignity of the office.” Chris Deluzio warned that the purge had “destabilized the military” and distracted from real war‑fighting needs. Their criticism wasn’t ideological. It was professional.

Republican veterans, by contrast, stayed quiet. Conservative veteran organizations didn’t weigh in. Their silence wasn’t accidental. It reflected the political pressures surrounding the administration.

Progressive veteran groups treated the speech as a direct threat to military professionalism. They focused less on the slurs and more on the structural message: that senior leadership could be purged for ideological reasons, and that religious identity might become a criterion for advancement.

The veteran community is not monolithic, and the speech exposed the fault lines with clarity. Culture warriors cheered the rhetoric. Veterans who value the Constitution and the rule of law over political loyalty saw it as an assault on the military’s independence.

The Religious Turn

The most overlooked part of the speech may be the most consequential: the creation of the Office of Religious Affairs.

Hegseth framed it as a way to “restore spiritual readiness.” Religious‑liberty advocates heard something else: a breach of the First Amendment. Military.com reported that the office immediately sparked a “legal church–state fight.” Constitutional scholars warned that the Pentagon cannot endorse a particular religious worldview, especially in an institution where obedience is not optional.

Christian and non‑Christian religious groups raised concerns about sectarian favoritism. Many church leaders warned against weaponizing faith. Even conservative Christian circles had raised concerns about religious freedom well before Hegseth’s announcement.

The LDS Church’s Constitutional Counterpoint

Recently, Dallin H. Oaks, president of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter‑day Saints — and a former state supreme court justice — spoke at the National Cathedral about religious freedom as a constitutional value. He emphasized constitutional balance, pluralism, and restraint — a message that stands in sharp contrast to the speech’s fusion of scripture, military aggression, and political identity.

Oaks urged Americans to build coalitions across disagreements and resist absolutism. He emphasized fairness for all, constitutional boundaries, and the need for peacemaking in a polarized nation. Retired federal judge Thomas Griffith praised Oaks’ message as a roadmap for navigating political and religious differences without coercion or contempt.

The LDS Church’s stance was clear: religious liberty protects everyone, government must avoid sectarian messaging, and faith should not be weaponized.

The Pope’s Moral Counterpoint

Where LDS leaders emphasized constitutional balance, Pope Leo XIV emphasized moral authority — but both pointed toward the same danger: the manipulation of religion to justify military action.

Just days after Hegseth prayed for “overwhelming violence” and “no mercy,” Pope Leo declared during Palm Sunday Mass that “God ignores the prayers of leaders who wage war and have hands full of blood.” He warned that Jesus “cannot be used to justify war.” Two weeks later, he condemned “those who manipulate religion for political or military ends.” And in May, his encyclical Magnifica Humanitas rejected autonomous warfare — the centerpiece of Hegseth’s AUTOWARCOM — as morally unacceptable.

This wasn’t theological commentary. It was a direct moral counter‑argument to the worldview Hegseth presented.

Historical Parallels — and Why They Don’t Fit

It’s tempting to reach for historical analogies to make sense of a moment like this. But the closest parallels don’t explain Hegseth’s speech — they highlight how many guardrails had to bend for it to happen.

Truman fired MacArthur to protect civil–military norms; Hegseth strained them. The Revolt of the Admirals was about policy, not ideology; today’s officers aren’t revolting, they’re afraid. Rumsfeld pushed radical transformation, but he didn’t lace it with slurs or scripture. Cold War civil religion was intentionally broad and nonsectarian. Chaplaincy battles were about enforcing neutrality, not reversing it. Foreign examples — Turkey, Hungary, Russia — show what happens when militaries become ideological instruments.

The real parallel is the absence of a parallel. The United States has never seen a civilian Secretary of Defense announce a purge of generals, use slurs against service members, invoke scripture as operational guidance, create a religious office reporting directly to him, frame war as a spiritual battle, and unveil a new autonomous‑warfare command — all in the same speech.

The analogies don’t normalize the speech. They show how far outside the norms it sits.

The Real Issue

The temptation is to treat the State of the Force speech as another entry in America’s endless culture war. But that misses the point.

The military is not a culture‑war battleground. It is a constitutional institution. Its legitimacy depends on nonpartisanship, professionalism, and continuity. When political actors treat it as a vehicle for ideological purification, they weaken the very thing they claim to strengthen.

Hegseth derides DEI initiatives while championing meritocracy as if the two are in opposition. Purges don’t build readiness. Slurs don’t build cohesion. Spiritual mandates don’t build trust. And speeches that sound like rallies don’t build institutions. Purges born of ideological purity tests, loyalty, and testosterone levels mock the notion of merit.

Theatrics have never been a force multiplier.

The Foggy Bottom Line

The 2026 State of the Force speech didn’t just reveal political polarization. It revealed institutional fragility. It showed how quickly civil–military norms can be bent, how easily rhetoric can become policy, and how deeply veterans themselves are divided about what the military should be.

But it also showed something else: the general officers in that room still know where the line is. They sat quietly. They didn’t cheer. They didn’t turn the speech into a spectacle.

Their integrity and professionalism held the line, even as the line was being probed and tested.

That, at least for now, should give us confidence in our military leadership.

Midterm Strategy: Ditch the Corporate Consultants for a GOP Performance Review

We’re 30 days out. Democrats look like they’re looking at a blue wave that could shift control of Congress from Republican to Democrat, maybe even the Senate. I want to talk about strategy a little bit because I’m seeing a lot of ads on TV that boil down to, “we gotta stop insider stock trading.” And you’re seeing that from both sides…even the guys that are doing it are bragging about voting for legislation that would stop it.

But Democrats are giving us the same old ads about how mom and dad taught me to work hard and I’ll work hard for you. I was a good prosecutor or state legislator or governor or businessman.

This is the same old corporate consultant bullshit that Democrats have been using to lose since 2016, and it’s time to change it up a little bit. Trump’s been president twice. The GOP has controlled all three branches of government for two years. And they still blame Biden for high gasoline prices.

It’s not Biden’s fault. They’ve had a chance to fix it. They haven’t fixed it.

So it’s time to do two things as a strategy for the midterms for Democrats in these last thirty days.

First, make this election a performance review. The GOP asked for control of Congress and the Senate and the presidency two years ago, and Americans gave it to them. They promised to make life more affordable and keep us out of war.

They did neither, and this begs the old Reagan question: Is your life better now than it was when we gave it to them?

The American people gave them control. We gave them power. What’d they use it for? Tax cuts for billionaires. They didn’t use it to bring your grocery prices down. They didn’t use it to bring your gasoline prices down. They didn’t use it to bring your housing prices down. And in fact, they got us into a war they promised not to get us into that raised all those prices.

Make Republicans talk about their performance just like you would at a job. If you’re a manager at a job, someone’s not performing, you talk to them and you fire them if they don’t straighten up and fly right.

The second thing we need to do is point out that the hundreds of millions of dollars corporations and billionaires and special interests are spending to try to win these seats demonstrates that they like the status quo. They want the status quo.

Seven dollar diesel is good for them because they’re selling diesel. It’s not good for you because you have to buy it to fill your truck up.

The same old corporate consultant stuff doesn’t work. These TV ads don’t change anybody’s minds. They just don’t. They may be good for pointing out to people who don’t pay much attention that there is an election, but they’re not changing anyone’s minds. No one is voting for Shannon Taylor because she said “Mom and dad taught me that hard work would bring success, but that doesn’t happen if we don’t stop the corruption” in a TV ad.

She’s right about that, but it’s not changing anyone’s mind. Instead, Shannon Taylor and other democrats need to be online saying it again and again: they promised to fix it and they just broke it even more.

Hammer home the fact that we gave the Republicans control of all three branches of government two years ago, and they’ve done nothing but create chaos and make things more expensive for everyone. It’s time to hold their feet to the fire because they didn’t do the job we hired them to do.

Point out that the corporations like the status quo just fine because they have power, they have no regulation, they have their tax cuts, and if they keep the same people in power, they’ll just get less regulation and more tax cuts.

And your housing will go up, your fuel costs will go up, your grocery bill will go up. Your interest rates on your credit card will go up because that’s all good for them. It’s all good for the corporations that are dropping millions in these elections blaming immigrants and trans people for the problems they caused.

You can’t blame Joe Biden for $7 diesel. The trans person is not causing $7 diesel fuel. Women who want reproductive health care are not causing $7 diesel fuel.

Republicans have had two years to fix it and they’ve only made it worse.  It’s time to hold their feet to the fire.

Progressives Show Strength in Democratic Primaries

It looks like Progressive candidates, all three with Mayor Mamdani’s endorsement, swept Democratic Party primaries in New York on Tuesday against candidates with Party support. (Paywall).

“Some of the night’s most potent victories for Mamdani’s branch of the party saw DSA-backed political newcomers Claire Valdez and Darializa Avila Chevalier defeating establishment-endorsed candidates, signaling a potent fusion of Mamdani’s grassroots popularity with the DSA’s organizing machine. Avila Chevalier attended a pro-Palestinian rally in 2023 in New York City the day after the Oct. 7 attacks in Israel that was criticized for including speakers who appeared to justify the violence.”

“Elsewhere, former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, also backed by Mamdani, soundly beat incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman in a heated election that also centered on U.S. policy toward Israel and the war in Gaza. Lander supports blocking military aid to Israel.”

This is an extraordinary result, and it’s not confined to New York:

“Progressives have romped through Democrats’ spring primaries, notching a series of wins across both safe and competitive districts and upending House and Senate Democrats’ battleplans. Left flank candidates Randy Villegas and Matt Dunlap trounced the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s preferred picks in a pair of battlegrounds in California and Maine.”

Two of the winners are aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America, and Brad Lander defeated an incumbent Congressman, Dan Goldman, who held the seat since 2022 and was on the impeachment prosecution team. Lander defeated him by 2-1 with support for Israel the main issue.

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War in Iran? The US Military in Aggressive Wars

Trump is apparently expanding the US military presence in the Middle East, a possible buildup to an attack on Iran. The why of this is important, since it involves nuclear capability, Israel, and quite possibly some corrupt scheme to line Trump’s pockets by either getting a payoff for stopping the attack or a payoff for executing it. All-in-all an interesting development for a President who just scammed $10B from American taxpayers for his “Board of Peace,” which itself raises interesting Constitutional questions about that whole Advise and Consent clause that requires Senate approval for treaties.

A post – or podcast episode – for another day. For now, this got me to thinking about US military leaders and how I would expect them to react if given orders to conduct offensive operations in support of an expansionist fascist regime.

We already know they will conduct offensive operations against both nation states and non-state actors given a plausible national security and moral argument, however specious (see Viet Nam and Communist expansion).

What would it take to get them on board with an openly expansionist foreign policy? To capture Greenland by force….then Cuba…Panama (the stole our canal, after all)? He’s openly spoken about invading all these countries, plus Mexico, on a “go after the cartels” pretext.

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SCOTUS Strikes Down Trump Tariffs

The US Supreme Court just struck down the sweeping tariffs Trump imposed on a variety on nations under the Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977. Barrett, Gorsuch, and Roberts joined Jackson, Kagan, and Sotomayor in the 6-3 ruling.

The Court ruled that Congress, not the President, has the power to impose broad tariffs on any imports from specific nations, and the Economic Powers Act does not confer this power on the President by a simple declaration. This does not affect industry-specific tariffs imposed under the Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.

Looks like SCOTUS isn’t the rubber stamp some of us thought they were, though given the effect on the stock market they may be protecting their portfolios in this case. Looking forward to reading the opinions, especially the dissent joined by Alito (who may be about to retire), Kavanaugh, and Thomas.

FBL Spot Report: Dems Cave on Shutdown

Over the weekend, Democrats, including Virginia’s Senator Kaine, caved on the shutdown and made a deal to reopen the government. Here are my thoughts.

Podcast Episode 2: The Rise of Authoritarianism

The Foggy Bottom Line podcast is now up on YouTube and Spotify. Scott and I discuss authoritarianism in the US and some things Americans can do in response.

Check us out on YouTube and Spotify.

Click on this link for YouTube.

Click here for Spotify.

We’re working to get up on other platforms.

Please like, comment, subscribe and all that stuff. Lots of great content is in the works.

Trump Fires BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer

Corporations, business owners, investors, and entrepreneurs need accurate data to make good decisions. Every day, organizations and individuals make critical decisions about whether to build a new factory, expand operations, trade securities, and borrow money, among many others.

This makes firing Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner Erika McEntarfer – on fabricated grounds that the Bureau of Labor Statistics “rigged” data in the most recent jobs report to make Trump look bad – a huge problem for American businesses. American corporations and investors can no longer trust government economic data on the US economy going forward. It’s clear that Trump will quash any bad news and publish only rosy numbers and optimistic projections. 

MAGA will cheer this news and line up to say that if Trump says it’s so then it must be so. The jobs report was rigged and McEntarfer should go to prison! We’re really in great shape on the employment front! The economy is growing! Prices are low again!

Trump has fixed everything! He’s the best President ever!

Others will see this for what it is: an effort to stroke Trump’s ego by tricking people into thinking things are fine when they are not.

Everyone should understand that even if labor data has little or no impact on decisions that affect your bottom line, this will not be the last time Trump cooks the data analysis books to make his policies look better than they really are. He’ll do this again.

Regular people who watch prices on life’s necessities while they can’t find work won’t be fooled by rosy data saying inflation is down and the economy is booming. 

Corporations, business owners, investors, and entrepreneurs won’t be fooled either they see the fabricated upward revisions Trump will expect, and get, from whatever flunky he appoints to the job. They know they’ll be forced to make billion-dollar decisions in an information vacuum. 

If you’re a CEO, small business owner, entrepreneur, or individual investor who supports Trump, this of all things should wake you up, even if extralegal detentions of citizens and lawful US residents did not.

Fingers crossed.

[Cross-posted on LInkedIn with minor edits.]

Wouldn’t the States Have the Receipts?

We’re right to worry about whether the Republican Party as an organization would sanction executing the plan outlined in this Newsweek opinion column. I have no doubt in my military mind that Donald Trump would do anything he could to stay in power, and that the Conservative movement (defined as the GOP and associated think tanks and interest groups) would do anything to keep a conservative in power. If those interests align and leaders see a unique opportunity, an attempt to establish a Presidency that lacked popular support is not out of the question.

I’ve written before about the Republican Project as I see it: a long-term conservative effort to capture the legal institutions necessary to keep power without having to bother assembling a coalition that can win elections, and block progressive legislation when they can’t. They would use these institutions to protect friends and hurt enemies, and to uphold orders restricting the right to vote while blocking local rules that would protect it. Once in control of these institutions, conservatives would use that control to protect their power if possible.

As I read the Newsweek scenario, it boils down to this: Biden wins the popular vote as well as the Electoral College on the strength of wins in four swing states which all have GOP legislative majorities. Trump and the GOP establishment challenge the result arguing that counterfeit ballots printed by China (presumably an anti-Trump Chinese intelligence operation) made the difference in those four states. Trump declares a national emergency and a national security investigation, which delays appointment of their Electors. Neither candidate assembles a majority in the Electoral College and the House, with its majority of GOP state delegations, would decide the election in favor of Trump.

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