{"id":377,"date":"2018-11-06T15:33:41","date_gmt":"2018-11-06T19:33:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/foggybottomline.com\/?p=377"},"modified":"2018-11-06T15:33:41","modified_gmt":"2018-11-06T19:33:41","slug":"predictions-from-the-bull-elephant-and-a-few-of-my-own","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/foggybottomline.com\/?p=377","title":{"rendered":"Predictions from The Bull Elephant – and a Few of My Own"},"content":{"rendered":"

Contributors and staff at The Bull Elephant<\/a>\u00a0<\/em>have predicted the outcome of today\u2019s elections\u00a0<\/a>and they deliver about what you\u2019d expect from true believers.\u00a0 Most think the GOP will hold the House and some think Republicans will pick up 3 or more seats in the Senate, with one suggesting a 60-seat majority.\u00a0 Many argue that Corey Stewart\u00a0<\/a>will outperform polls and one thinks he could have won with more help from the Republican national and state parties.\u00a0 Almost all think Barbara Comstock\u00a0<\/a>will lose, but few think any other Democrats will win Virginia House seats they aren\u2019t heavily favored to win (e.g., Don McEachin [D-4]<\/a>).\u00a0<\/p>\n

Most of this is pretty standard-issue political prognostication from activists with a particular agenda.\u00a0One predictor stands out, however: Catharine Trauernicht<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cI believe that America experienced Divine intervention on November 7, 2016, to breathe new life into our Republic.\u00a0 And it\u2019s not going to evaporate next Tuesday.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Donald Trump\u00a0<\/a>has demonstrated racist views<\/a>and a minimal respect for women<\/a> (some would suggest he hates all women save his own daughter).\u00a0 He has no connection of any kind to Jesus Christ, His teachings, or religion in general except a new interest in banning abortion if it will secure evangelical support (this was not always his position on reproductive choice<\/a>).\u00a0 Yet Trauernicht believes that God Himself placed this man in the White House and will continue protecting the man who in a Biblical context resembles no character more than he does the Antichrist<\/a>.\u00a0 I\u2019m not sure what to say about this.\u00a0 I will however comment on another reason Trauernicht predicts a red tide: \u201cthe astonishing energy\u201d at Trump rallies.\u00a0 I have not attended any so cannot speak personally to whether these rallies actually reflect voter enthusiasm.<\/p>\n

But I did attend a Corey Stewart rally in Mechanicsville\u00a0<\/a>on Sunday and was not that impressed.\u00a0 Only about 60 people attended, including staff and videographers (presumably from a local TV station).\u00a0 Almost this many showed up to hear me give a lecture on the Electoral College to an Indivisible group two months ago and I must admit surprise that Stewart could not generate a larger crowd in arguably the most conservative county on the East Coast.\u00a0This was moreover not exactly an enthusiastic crowd \u2013 they cheered when Stewart predicted a shock to the political world when he upsets Kaine, but body language revealed their pessimism.\u00a0Interestingly, no Republican state or local politicians joined Stewart at the event that I know of (with the exception of one Board of Supervisors hopeful).\u00a0 No Rob Wittman<\/a>, no Ryan McDougle<\/a>, no Chris Peace<\/a>.\u00a0 This stood in stark contrast to events I\u2019ve attended featuring Tim Kaine<\/a>, where local officials line up to get selfies with him.<\/p>\n

In any event, I wonder whether any of the analysis offered by Bull Elephant\u00a0<\/em>staff relies on actual data and how much on wishful thinking like Ms. Trauernicht\u2019s.\u00a0 To the extent it\u2019s data I wonder how much of it comes from inside the Fox News bubble<\/a>.\u00a0 Historically, for example, we know that Democrats do well in elections when voters show up in larger numbers.\u00a0 This appears to happen because the Liberal coalition is broad, but perhaps not as deep as Democrats would like. \u00a0The Democratic Party has more voters, but they are less committed to ongoing political activity and don\u2019t show up for mid-terms.\u00a0 Conservatives depend on a smaller and mostly white but deeper coalition, at least in terms of enthusiasm.\u00a0 They reliably show up to vote in off-year elections. \u00a0Since it’s very clear that Democrats have bumped up their enthusiasm and activism levels a few notches, do the Bull Elephant<\/em> folks think Trump so effectively motivates his core white base that they can overcome high Democratic turnout?<\/p>\n

Early voting is off the charts, and it seems to me that the makeup of these new early voters is a key independent variable in this analysis.\u00a0 If these are new voters registered by energized liberals, especially women, I would expect a blue wave \u2013 and a relatively large one.\u00a0 This goes double if many of these early voters are first-timers.<\/p>\n

I see no evidence of Republican efforts to expand their coalition.\u00a0 Indeed, most Republican candidates seem to have relied on electoral strategies (immigration fears) that energize the base at the risk of turning off previously dependable GOP constituencies (e.g., white women with college degrees<\/a>).\u00a0 The one policy issue they can claim effectiveness on, the economy, seems largely missing from their stump speeches.\u00a0 Republicans also seem to have placed a lot of eggs in the voter suppression basket, and the vote does not look very suppressed so far.\u00a0More than twice as many voters under 29 have voted early as in 2014<\/a>, for example.\u00a0 If true, this probably reflects an expansion of the Democratic coalition that the polls do not capture.<\/p>\n

After missing the Trump win so completely in 2016 I\u2019m reluctant to make specific predictions.\u00a0 Historic fundamentals suggest a huge shift in the political center of gravity which gerrymandering can\u2019t stop and could even make worse<\/a>.\u00a0 Polling of quite a few races has not often strayed outside the margin of error, and I\u2019ve become convinced that most pollsters make too many incorrect assumptions about the makeup of the electorate to get very close.\u00a0I think this is particularly true this cycle \u2013 the high rates of new voter registration we\u2019ve seen this year suggest models could be off with respect to who they project will actually show up.<\/p>\n

With so many close races, extreme results are possible depending on how things break.\u00a0 I happen to think most will break toward the Democratic candidates in both House and Senate races.\u00a0 They don\u2019t have to break much.\u00a0 So I predict generally that the Democrats will take control of the House and fall just short in the Senate unless Heidi Heitkamp\u00a0<\/a>can pull it out.\u00a0 I actually think Beto O\u2019Rourke\u00a0<\/a>will win Texas by the skin of his teeth and Bill Nelson\u00a0<\/a>will pull it out in Florida.\u00a0 If both of these come true and Dean Heller\u00a0<\/a>goes down in Nevada we could be looking at a 50-50 Senate \u2013 close but no cigar if you\u2019re a Dem.<\/p>\n

The House is easier to scope out.\u00a0 I don\u2019t see Republicans holding on to seats in any of the GOP incumbent districts Clinton won in 2016.\u00a0 I also see Virginia Democratic candidates doing well, largely because of Tim Kaine\u2019s popularity and a general distaste for Corey Stewart\u2019s Trump impersonation.\u00a0I\u2019ll resist the urge to make predictions about specific seats except to say that I think Abigail Spanberger\u00a0<\/a>will win against Dave Brat<\/a>.\u00a0 Vangie Williams<\/a> can win the First if she turns out minorities in high numbers on the Northern Neck and Middle Peninsula while racking up majorities in Northern Virginia precincts.\u00a0 But sadly I suspect she\u2019ll fall just short.\u00a0 Conservatives I\u2019ve spoken to have issues with Rob Wittman<\/a>, but I don\u2019t see them splitting their tickets Stewart\/Williams.\u00a0 Kaine\/Wittman split tickets seem more likely to me.<\/p>\n

Of course I told everyone who would listen that Trump had no chance in Hell of winning the Presidency.\u00a0I got that one badly wrong because I just couldn\u2019t believe any Obama voters would make that switch.\u00a0 So the odds are high that I don\u2019t know what I\u2019m talking about.\u00a0We\u2019ll know soon enough, for good or ill.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Contributors and staff at The Bull Elephant\u00a0have predicted the outcome of today\u2019s elections\u00a0and they deliver about what you\u2019d expect from true believers.\u00a0 Most think the GOP will hold the House and some think Republicans will pick up 3 or more seats in the Senate, with one suggesting a 60-seat majority.\u00a0 Many argue that Corey Stewart\u00a0will […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[115,146,98,147,70,37,117,25],"tags":[126,99,97],"class_list":["post-377","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-2018-first-district-race","category-2018-mid-term-elections","category-2018-virginia-senate-race","category-corey-stewart","category-donald-trump","category-politics-and-elections","category-rob-wittman","category-virginia-elections","tag-blue-wave","tag-corey-stewart","tag-virginia-politics"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/foggybottomline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/377","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/foggybottomline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/foggybottomline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foggybottomline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/27"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foggybottomline.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=377"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/foggybottomline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/377\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":378,"href":"https:\/\/foggybottomline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/377\/revisions\/378"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/foggybottomline.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=377"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foggybottomline.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=377"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foggybottomline.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=377"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}