{"id":320,"date":"2018-08-09T18:19:39","date_gmt":"2018-08-09T22:19:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/foggybottomline.com\/?p=320"},"modified":"2018-08-09T18:19:39","modified_gmt":"2018-08-09T22:19:39","slug":"chris-collins-and-the-republican-project","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/foggybottomline.com\/?p=320","title":{"rendered":"Chris Collins and the Republican Project"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Federal prosecutors indicted <a href=\"https:\/\/chriscollins.house.gov\/\">GOP Representative Chris Collins<\/a> for insider trading yesterday.\u00a0 Collins represents the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/New_York%27s_27th_congressional_district\">27<sup>th<\/sup>District in northwestern New York<\/a> and was an early Donald Trump supporter.\u00a0 Right now his <a href=\"https:\/\/chriscollins.house.gov\/\">website<\/a> touts three Federal grants to improve sewer, airport, and firefighting infrastructure in his district, which is how I suppose he expects to achieve his \u201cVision: The United States of America will reclaim its past glory as the Land of Opportunity, restoring the promise of the American Dream for our children and grandchildren.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>I guess it\u2019s good to know that at least one GOP rep thinks Government works and should intervene without waiting for markets to allocate resources to regional airports and municipal sewer systems.\u00a0 But since <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2017\/12\/19\/us\/politics\/tax-bill-house-live-vote.html\">Collins voted for<\/a> the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Tax_Cuts_and_Jobs_Act_of_2017\">tax \u201creform\u201d act<\/a> last year, he must also think <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbo.gov\/system\/files\/115th-congress-2017-2018\/costestimate\/53362-summarysenatereconciliation.pdf\">borrowing money<\/a> that his grandchildren will have to pay back will restore to them the \u201cpromise of the American Dream.\u201d\u00a0 Low taxes for corporations now and higher taxes for everyone else later sounds like the \u201cLand of Opportunity,\u201d all right \u2013 if you\u2019re a corporate CEO or shareholder.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2018\/08\/08\/politics\/read-collins-indictment-charges\/index.html\">In the indictment,<\/a> prosecutors allege that Collins, who sits on the board of an Australian drug manufacturer and owns millions in the firm\u2019s stock, panicked when he learned during a Congressional picnic that a critical trial of the only drug the company makes had failed.\u00a0 Unable to rid himself of his own positions for various reasons, Collins called his son Cameron, who also owns the stock, to let him know so he could sell his.\u00a0He used his own personal cell, knowing that telling his family members broke his fiduciary duty and the law, and that the House Ethics Committee was already investigating him for \u2013 wait for it \u2013 <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/powerpost\/house-ethics-committee-reviewing-charges-against-rep-chris-collins\/2017\/08\/28\/cd10710e-8c28-11e7-84c0-02cc069f2c37_story.html?utm_term=.229b26322f09\">insider trading<\/a><\/em>.\u00a0 Cameron then told his future father in law, Stephen Zarsky, another shareholder.\u00a0 Collins\u2019 son and Zarsky sold their shares based on this non-public information and also face charges.<\/p>\n<p>This selloff reportedly saved a little under $800K for the family, and this is of course not chump change.\u00a0But <a href=\"https:\/\/www.opensecrets.org\/\">Open Secrets<\/a> pegs <a href=\"https:\/\/www.opensecrets.org\/personal-finances\/net-worth?cid=N00001285&amp;year=2015\">Collins\u2019 net worth at just shy of $70 million<\/a>. That very wealthy people will break the law in a such a staggeringly stupid way to avoid the loss of something like 1% of their holdings mystifies me.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, it gets better.\u00a0He <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2017\/12\/19\/us\/politics\/tax-bill-house-live-vote.html\">used campaign funds to pay legal bills<\/a> defending himself from the House query.\u00a0 And some even speak out loud and in public about Trump giving Collins a pardon.\u00a0Just more data points showing that Trump had no intention of draining the swamp, and in fact wants only to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/news\/politics\/onpolitics\/2018\/05\/18\/bill-mandates-disclosure-government-spending-trump-properties\/622999002\/\">make sure he and his cronies get their share<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>This is, in the end, the Republican Party project: use the power of the state to make loans and then transfer the money to corporations and the wealthy by cutting their taxes.\u00a0These borrow and spend Republicans create large deficits on purpose, knowing that this will pump up the economy and make them look good \u2013 but also knowing that the higher growth will not increase revenue.\u00a0 The <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Laffer_curve\">Laffer Curve<\/a> works only at the margins, and we\u2019ve been well inside that margin since about 1985.\u00a0 And, as George W. Bush demonstrated, <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Great_Recession\">bubbles pop<\/a>. \u00a0The US economy needed no stimulus, and in a very real sense the GOP has wasted a golden opportunity to hold power for decades simply by governing effectively and with moderation.<\/p>\n<p>Sad, but these guys seem to have more short-term interests in mind, and it\u2019s not those of the people who elect them.\u00a0 We\u2019ll see how that works out for them in November.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Protect Roe v Wade politically, not judicially.\u00a0 Create a grassroots clamor that the court cannot ignore.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Restriction on the right to vote \u2013 must own property?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Corey Stewart is the Face of the Republican Party in Virginia<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Corey Stewart is now the face of the Republican Party in Virginia. Virginia Republican primary voters chose this defender of treasonous Americans to carry their flag against Tim Kaine, and doing so demonstrated their commitment to using the power of the state to protect discrimination against minorities.\u00a0 Their support for Corey Stewart says all you need to know about the core Republican voter in Virginia.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Corey Stewart, like Donald Trump, is a racist. He defends the honor of men who betrayed their oaths to the Constitution and fought instead for the right of local plantation elites to use the power of the State to protect slavery &#8211; the literal power to own human beings. This was no honorable cause, and men like Robert E. Lee deserve no honorable memoriam.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Virginia conservatives of all types will work and vote for Stewart in the end anyway.\u00a0 Some simply share his racist views. They want him to use the office to protect them from contact and competition with people of color.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Those who don&#8217;t will still happily support a neo-confederate racist for election to the US Senate because they know he agrees with them on policy.\u00a0 Stewart would vote to cut taxes on the wealthy and regulation of corporate power.\u00a0 He would vote to confirm judges who would uphold voter suppression laws, overturn Roe v Wade, protect corporations from regulation, and protect the right to discriminate on religious grounds.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The Virginia GOP has its nominee for US Senate.\u00a0 He\u2019s a white supremacist and a racist.\u00a0 You guys might as well own it.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Back in the Day: Immigration Edition<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>There was a time when non-citizens could cross the border very easily.\u00a0 Quite a few people lived in Mexico but worked in the US.\u00a0 This changed in 1996.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Is Trump Creating New Dreamers?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Current Trump Administration immigration policy looks like one way to create a path to citizenship for immigrant children.\u00a0 After kidnapping them and taking them hostage, Trump\u2019s DHS and ICE often fail to reunite parent and child.\u00a0 These children end up with a sponsor or relative, and if the government loses track, these kids could grow up in the US.\u00a0 Sixteen years later you have a new Dreamer.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Shame and Shunning<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>You couldn\u2019t turn on a cable news program today without hearing a discussion of the appropriateness of calling out government officials in public for implementing immoral and racist policies.\u00a0 An entrepreneur and small businesswoman refused to serve a prospective customer based on closely held moral principles.\u00a0 XXX of The Red Hen in Lexington, VA asked Sarah Huckabee Sanders to leave her restaurant on Friday night because she objected to Sanders\u2019 participation in defending racist and immoral policy \u2013 she and her staff refused to serve Sanders on moral grounds.\u00a0 Just how this differs from refusal to make a cake for a gay wedding isn\u2019t clear.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Elsewhere protesters hounded DHS Secretary Kristjen Nielsen out of an upscale Mexican restaurant in DC when a patron alerted the local Democratic Socialists of America chapter.\u00a0They showed up and shouted \u201cShame! Shame!\u201d until she\u2019d had enough, probably muttering \u201cFucking Twitter!\u201d under her breath as she left.\u00a0\u00a0 And on Sunday Stephen Miller suffered a less organized but perhaps more cutting jab from a single fellow diner: \u201cWhoever thought we\u2019d be in a restaurant with a real-life fascist begging [for] money for new cages?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Yes, you read that right.\u00a0A patron in a public place called a very senior government official and a key presidential advisor a fascist to his face.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>I accept the premise that new Trump Administration policy with respect to the processing and treatment of immigrants seeking asylum has a racial foundation \u2013 at least inasmuch as Stephen Miller thinks it appeals to white supremacist ideologies held by many Trump base voters. \u00a0They believe that MS-13 is an existential threat and more immigrants mean more crime (uh, no).\u00a0 They either take our jobs or go on the dole.\u00a0 They\u2019re turning the US brown, and<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>I also take for granted that it violates our heretofore shared understandings about what \u201cright\u201d looks like.\u00a0 Normal people, with normal Judeo-Christian values, simply don\u2019t take nursing infants from mothers\u2019 arms\u2014lying that it\u2019s only for a bath\u2014then keep them apart for weeks.\u00a0\u00a0 Border agents allegedly use the prospect of reunion with children to influence a criminal proceeding or \u00a0then simply neglected to keep track of each in a way that would facilitate an eventual reunion.\u00a0\u00a0 then For many, that is, this new policy appears motivated by animus toward brown people from Mexico and points south, and because it strips infants from the arms of mothers it crosses a moral and ethical line.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>A racially motivated government policy that violates fundamental moral values calls for a response.\u00a0How should citizens respond?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The thread began with the Red Hen<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Republican Infighting<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Corey Stewart\u2019s nomination to go up against Tim Kaine for a US Senate seat has created rifts in the Virginia Republican Party.\u00a0 See this exchange between Steven Brodie Tucker and John Massoud at The Bull Elephant.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Health Insurance<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Insurance is a product that involves pooling risk.\u00a0 A large number of people contribute to a fund on condition that the fund would make them whole in the event of a specific loss (life, home or automobile value, liability).\u00a0 As long as underwriters correctly calculate the probability of loss and cost of covering them, insurance companies make money.\u00a0 This model only works, however, if most contributors never experience a loss.\u00a0The great majority of drivers, for example, never have an accident.\u00a0 These people pay for insurance they never use.\u00a0 They do it anyway because this investment protects them from a catastrophic event that would ruin them financially.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>This model, however, won\u2019t work if every customer will eventually suffer a loss.\u00a0 With health insurance, we know that going in \u2013 these firms will eventually have to cover contributor losses.\u00a0 It may be a minor one \u2013 some people live their entire lives without needing any medical care to speak of and then pass quietly.\u00a0 Many more, however, end up with serious diseases or conditions and use a lot of health care resources.\u00a0 Most people will receive, at some point, life-saving medical care.\u00a0 Usually very expensive life-saving medical care.\u00a0 This means that health insurance firms have only one purpose in this market: payer.\u00a0 They don\u2019t evaluate the market and allocate resources to fill a market need.\u00a0 They simply make payments to providers according to rules and procedures they more or less set themselves.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>This seriously limits the power of the market to efficiently allocate health care resources, and it\u2019s not the only constraint.\u00a0 Our shared understandings about the value of human life matter here.\u00a0 More important is that health insurance firms don\u2019t actually compete to see who can produce the best quality product at the lowest price.\u00a0They compete to see who can avoid making the product available at all and construct their payment requirements to do just this: avoid payment.\u00a0 This increases costs on providers, who form the only market-based component of the health care sector.\u00a0 Whether hospital large or small-town-doctor small, they run businesses or non-profits that provide services for a fee.\u00a0 Having to navigate the cost avoidance strategy \u2013 that is, paperwork \u2013 of several health insurance firms limits their efficiency.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Health insurance firms distort markets in another way: they restrict customers to certain provider networks, limiting consumer choice to providers willing to accept lower fees and other conditions set by the insurance company.\u00a0 Health insurance is not portable \u2013 I can\u2019t shop around for the doctor I want \u2013 I have to select one from the list on the insurance company website.\u00a0So provider incentive has less to do with quality product at low price than it does with compliance with payer requirements.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Refugee Camps<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Prince William County Democratic Committee<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Notes on the PWC Dem Committee from my experience on the campaign trail.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Are 40% of Americans \u201cIndependent?\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Smerconish and other talking heads keep telling me that about forty percent of Americans are independent, presumably because they say so when responding to polls and surveys.\u00a0It\u2019s actually more accurate to claim that 40% of Americans SAY they are independent \u2013 and this high number could reflect an unwillingness to formally pick a side rather than no-kidding independent behavior.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>DPVA Gala<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Courts as hedge against loss of political majority\/power<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>About XXX years ago, conservatives realized something about the US Constitution: it created a super legislature in the Supreme Court.\u00a0 They even accused liberal judges of acting so (e.g., finding a right to privacy in the Constitution).<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Since Marbury v Madison, state and Federal governments have accepted the power of Federal Courts (with SCOTUS the last stop) to review whether Congressional or Presidential action violates the Constitution.\u00a0 Approaches to and definition of constitutionality has varied across the years, and judges making specious arguments to support a ruling is not new.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>But the GOP has a coordinated strategy for creating a Constitution that protects their political power and policy preferences.\u00a0 Activists challenge laws they don\u2019t like in the courts, and conservative judges accept their interpretation.\u00a0 These judges also protect laws that create unequal access to the ballot box and public square.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>And conservative politicians have moved courts to the right by obstructing appointments during more liberal administrations and violating norms to ensure the most conservative possible judges get on the bench.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Conservatives have complained about this for ages.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Corey Stewart <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Last week, <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Corey_Stewart_(politician)\">Corey Stewart<\/a>won the Republican nomination to run against <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Tim_Kaine\">Senator Tim Kaine<\/a>for US Senate this November.\u00a0 This means that the de facto leader of the <a href=\"http:\/\/virginia.gop\/\">Virginia Republican Party<\/a>is a white supremacist from Minnesota.\u00a0 We know he\u2019s a white supremacist because he thinks <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dailyprogress.com\/news\/politics\/stewart-s-support-for-statues-draws-ire-nationwide\/article_652bfdee-2add-11e7-bc9b-470d7b5eb1c5.html\">monuments to men who committed treason against the United States in defense of slavery belong in the public square<\/a>.\u00a0 The guy made his bones <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/wp-dyn\/content\/article\/2007\/10\/17\/AR2007101700234.html?tid=a_mcntx\">harassing people of color and trying to cleanse Prince William County of immigrants<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Corey Stewart likes to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.richmond.com\/news\/virginia\/in-charlottesville-gop-candidate-for-governor-corey-stewart-allies-with\/article_211e1dbc-c324-5664-94d1-186aa24bb5d0.html\">pal around<\/a>with people like <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Paul_Nehlen\">Paul Nehlen<\/a>and <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Jason_Kessler\">Jason Kessler<\/a>.\u00a0 Nehlen is an anti-Semite who jokes on Twitter about killing political opponents.\u00a0 Kessler organized the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Unite_the_Right_rally\">Unite the Right<\/a>Rally in Charlottesville last August.\u00a0 A rally attendee and Kessler supporter killed<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2017\/08\/13\/us\/charlottesville-heather-heyer-profile\/index.html\">Heather Heyer<\/a>with his car.\u00a0 Two Virginia State Troopers, Lieutenant H. Jay Cullen, 48, of Midlothian, Virginia, and Trooper-Pilot Berke M. M. Bates, 40, of Quinton, Virginia, died when their observation helicopter crashed on their way to assist authorities on the ground.\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/unitetherightrally.com\/\">Kessler plans a sequel, by the way<\/a>.\u00a0 Wonder if Stewart will attend.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Stewart\u2019s less-than-subtle nods to racists and white supremacists will make him yet another turnout machine for Democrats \u2013 along with Trump, gun violence, attacks on health care, separating immigrant parents and children, and shifting America\u2019s alliances away from the network of democracies in favor of closer relations with autocratic states.\u00a0 Making Corey Stewart the face of the Republican Party in Virginia will infect down-ballot races for Congress and probably improves Democrats\u2019 chances to flip red districts in the Commonwealth.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>What does this mean for the Republicans in the Commonwealth?\u00a0 Stewart has already attached his brand to the RPVA, and his run for a Senate seat as a state-level Donald Trump begs a question: will institutional Republicans in Virginia line up behind him as Mitch McConnel and Paul Ryan have?\u00a0 How often will <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Barbara_Comstock\">Barbara Comstock<\/a>and <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Dave_Brat\">Dave Brat<\/a>campaign with him?\u00a0 To be sure, Stewart\u2019s win created a conundrum for conservatives with respect to optics.\u00a0 The political right in the US has happily <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Hands_(advertisement)\">dog-whistled race<\/a>for decades, and Trump effectively changed no conservative policy goals \u2013 he just started saying the quiet parts out loud.\u00a0Since he won, some politicians will copy this strategy.\u00a0 The trouble is that after two years of open race-baiting, most Americans now know what they\u2019re getting and don\u2019t much like it.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>This includes some conservatives.\u00a0 Writers at <em><a href=\"https:\/\/bearingdrift.com\/\">Bearing Drift<\/a><\/em>and <em><a href=\"http:\/\/thebullelephant.com\/\">The Bull Elephant<\/a><\/em>agree that Stewart\u2019s nomination reflects an acceptance by the Virginia GOP base of a white nationalism that will <a href=\"https:\/\/bearingdrift.com\/2018\/06\/14\/the-virginia-gops-death-march\/\">hurt their chances down ballot<\/a>.\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/bearingdrift.com\/author\/mattw\/\">Matt Walton<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/bearingdrift.com\/2018\/06\/19\/compassionate-conservatism-collapses-under-trump-and-stewart\/\">complains<\/a>that Stewart lied about whether Democrats hold responsibility for the breakup of immigrant families under Trump.\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/search?client=safari&amp;rls=en&amp;q=norman+leahy&amp;ie=UTF-8&amp;oe=UTF-8\">Norman Leahy<\/a>calls Stewart \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/bearingdrift.com\/2018\/06\/14\/the-virginia-gops-death-march\/\">a rebel flag-draped bridge too far<\/a>\u201d and argues that Dave Brat\u2019s \u201c\u2026<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/blogs\/all-opinions-are-local\/wp\/2018\/06\/20\/why-dave-brat-should-dodge-corey-stewart\/?utm_term=.ffbf49133465\">biggest problem is how he can separate his campaign from that of Trump\u2019s mini-me, Corey A. Stewart<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/bearingdrift.com\/2018\/06\/18\/a-trump-stewart-republican-party\/\">Stewart answers the rhetoric of minority grievance and resentment with the rhetoric of white grievance and resentment<\/a>,\u201d writes <a href=\"https:\/\/baconsrebellion.com\/the-blog\/james-a-bacon\/\">James Bacon<\/a>, noting that \u201cI\u2019m an educated suburbanite, and Stewart isn\u2019t appealing to people like me.\u201d On primary election night <a href=\"http:\/\/thebullelephant.com\/author\/steven-brodie-tucker\/\">Steven Brodie Tucker<\/a>wrote, \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/thebullelephant.com\/let-corey-stewart-and-his-supporters-have-their-day-in-the-sun\/\">The Republican Party of Virginia is the party of White-Identity Politics<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>These guys apparently don\u2019t like having a white supremacist nominee as the face of the GOP.\u00a0 But it\u2019s not clear what actual Stewart policy proposals they reject.\u00a0 I suspect they agree in principle that the US should severely restrict immigration.\u00a0 I can find no examples of these guys objecting to the kind of voter suppression laws and racial gerrymandering that Stewart would vote for.\u00a0 They would support religious freedom laws that permit discrimination where treating everyone the same would violate a claimed religious belief.\u00a0 They back misogynistic restrictions on a woman\u2019s right to reproductive health care.\u00a0 I doubt they would object to more liberal gun laws like concealed carry reciprocity.\u00a0They would happily support higher government debt in order to further shift the tax burden from the wealthy to the poor.\u00a0 And of course they would, like Stewart, enthusiastically back the kind of judges who would uphold these laws.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>And this reflects the larger problem with the GOP writ large: they don\u2019t mind Trump saying the quiet parts out loud with regard to race and look the other way when he fills his pockets with taxpayer money as long as they get the tax cuts, deregulation, voter suppression, and judges they want. They plug their ears when Trump riles up the base with <a href=\"http:\/\/www.politifact.com\/truth-o-meter\/statements\/2018\/may\/15\/donald-trump\/donald-trump-exaggerates-number-ms-13-gang-members\/\">false tales of MS-13<\/a>because it gets out the vote for politicians who will suppress votes, deregulate corporations, cut taxes, and ignore gun violence.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019ve met Corey Stewart in person and heard him speak at a <a href=\"http:\/\/mechanicsvilleteaparty.com\/\">Mechanicsville Tea Party<\/a>meeting a couple of months ago.\u00a0 This was an intimate setting, with only about a dozen people in the room.\u00a0 He delivered a fairly standard-issue conservative stump speech \u2013 climate change can\u2019t be real because it\u2019s cold outside today, gun-free zones invite gun violence, Democrats just want to expand government for the sake of expanding government.\u00a0 He also claimed that \u201cthere\u2019s a lot of things out there people don\u2019t know about Tim Kaine.\u201d\u00a0 We didn\u2019t hear much about confederate monuments, so perhaps he\u2019s learned to moderate his message.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>I expect Kaine will wrap up Stewart with Trump and Nehlen and Kessler in Confederate battle flags to both motivate Democratic activists and keep that bad taste in the mouths of institutional Republicans in the Commonwealth.\u00a0 Stewart will win the Tea Party and Trump voters, but it will be interesting to see whether or not principled conservatives will have the backbone to distance themselves with control of the Senate \u2013 and with it control over judicial appointments \u2013 in play.\u00a0 If he can only get a dozen Tea Partiers to show up when he speaks, he\u2019ll need their help.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>It was a good day, until it wasn\u2019t.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>I spent Primary Day roaming the First District putting out signs and helping volunteers where we had them at the polls talking to voters.\u00a0 Took some photos of <a href=\"https:\/\/suddarthforcongress.com\/\">John Suddarth<\/a>voting.\u00a0 Started off at a polling place in Caroline County where I greeted a handful of voters and spent 30 minutes talking to <a href=\"http:\/\/thebullelephant.com\/author\/steven-brodie-tucker\/\">Steven Brodie Tucker<\/a>about the state of the Republican Party, whether <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Nick_Freitas\">Nick Freitas<\/a>or <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Corey_Stewart_(politician)\">Corey Stewart<\/a>can win <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Tim_Kaine\">Tim Kaine\u2019s<\/a>Senate seat this fall, and single payer health care.\u00a0Interestingly, he seemed open to the idea once I explained that John\u2019s proposal would actually free up markets in health care by removing for-profit health insurance companies from the mix.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>As I spoke to voters I began to feel a bit better about John\u2019s prospects.\u00a0 Quite a few people told me that someone had knocked on their door or they had received our mailer or a text.\u00a0 Those who said they\u2019d voted for John reported that they liked <a href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/Edwin_Santana_(Virginia)\">Edwin Santana<\/a>and <a href=\"https:\/\/vangieforcongress.com\/\">Vangie Williams<\/a>just fine but believed John would have a better chance to defeat <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Rob_Wittman\">Rob Wittman<\/a>in November.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>An encounter with an older couple at a Prince William County polling place reinforced this thinking.\u00a0I told them about John and handed them a palm card but they told me they were Republicans and would take the Red ballot.\u00a0A few minutes later they came out and stopped to tell me that they just couldn\u2019t do it \u2013 they just couldn\u2019t vote for any of the GOP Senate candidates.\u00a0 They had switched and reported that they voted for \u201cyour guy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>At a polling place in Montclair I introduced myself to an older woman sitting in a lawn chair with an <a href=\"http:\/\/eagleforum.org\/\">Eagle Forum<\/a>newsletter open on her lap.\u00a0 She had volunteered to staff this polling place and recruit volunteers for the Republican Party.\u00a0 We chatted for a few minutes and when the subject of gun violence came up she tried to tell me I don\u2019t know what an assault weapon is. \u00a0I rolled my eyes and started to respond when she interrupted me to yell her \u201cwould you like to volunteer for the Republican Party\u201d ask at a woman who had just voted. \u00a0This woman never left her lawn chair \u2013 she just yelled at people as they walked by \u2013 and I wondered about the effectiveness of her technique.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The woman responded with a polite \u201cno, thank you\u201d and moved on.\u00a0 Then a couple walked out of the building and my new GOP friend asked the same thing: \u201cWould you like to volunteer to support the Republican Party?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The man responded: \u201cI don\u2019t speak Russian.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>I laughed of course, and thought to myself that if \u201cin bed with the Russians\u201d has become the GOP brand among the kind of folks who vote in primary elections, perhaps a Blue Wave really is coming.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>From there I began to make my way to our watch party venue to set things up.\u00a0 Banner up, laptop hooked to a big screen, and a beer in my hand I opened the State Board of Elections website and stared.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Vangie was ahead, by what looked like a comfortable margin.\u00a0 I scrolled down to see what precincts remained out and saw that neither Hanover nor Prince William had reported.\u00a0 We thought we would do well in Hanover so I held out hope but as the returns updated I realized pretty quickly that second would be the best John could do, and even that turned out to be overly optimistic.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>So what had been a very pleasant day turned sour very quickly.\u00a0 Reflecting on how I\u2019d arrived at my expectations, I realized that I\u2019d completely missed an obvious Vangie strategy: focus on minority voters, get them out, and hope that this plus whatever votes she could capture from women would get her over the top in a low-turnout election.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Not sure what we could have done about this had this occurred to me sooner.\u00a0 We probably wouldn\u2019t have been able to make many inroads with minorities (and perhaps not with women) in the current political climate.\u00a0And generating high turnout as a general matter was a challenge given that all three candidates shared a Progressive vision.\u00a0 I can imagine a lot of voters thinking out loud to themselves, \u201cThey\u2019re all good, so why bother?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>In any event, it\u2019s over and Vangie won.\u00a0 She ran a great campaign \u2013 very savvy \u2013 and I know she\u2019ll be an excellent candidate and a fine Congresswoman.\u00a0 Time to get working on the next phase.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Federal prosecutors indicted GOP Representative Chris Collins for insider trading yesterday.\u00a0 Collins represents the 27thDistrict in northwestern New York and was an early Donald Trump supporter.\u00a0 Right now his website touts three Federal grants to improve sewer, airport, and firefighting infrastructure in his district, which is how I suppose he expects to achieve his \u201cVision: [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[110,70,109,108,107,83],"tags":[113,112,111,114],"class_list":["post-320","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-congressional-hijinks","category-donald-trump","category-government-corruption","category-looting-the-state","category-republican-project","category-the-rules-of-american-capitalism","tag-congressional-hijinks","tag-government-corruption","tag-looting-the-state","tag-the-republican-project"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/foggybottomline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/320","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/foggybottomline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/foggybottomline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foggybottomline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/27"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foggybottomline.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=320"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/foggybottomline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/320\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":321,"href":"https:\/\/foggybottomline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/320\/revisions\/321"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/foggybottomline.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=320"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foggybottomline.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=320"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foggybottomline.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=320"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}